As Major League Soccer kicks off its landmark 30th season, the burning question on many minds is just how high the league can climb in the next 30 years. Will a combination of key factors like loosened roster rules, increased spending, and even the long-debated prospect of promotion and relegation propel MLS into the ranks of the world’s top leagues by 2055? As the league takes stock at this milestone juncture, the potential pathways to global preeminence are as tantalizing as they are challenging.
MLS at a Crossroads
There’s no question MLS has demonstrated impressive staying power and growth through its first three decades. The league’s resilience is now firmly established, with 30 teams slated to take the field in 2025 and marquee global stars like Lionel Messi raising its profile. But to truly reach the pinnacle of the sport within the next 30 years, most observers agree MLS will need to evolve significantly.
“I think it can be a top-six league,” ventures Atlanta United president Garth Lagerwey. “But at some point, we’ll have to take the risk of, are we going to go forward or not? You have to have the ratings, the business metrics that support that.”
The Spending Question
One clear area where MLS must boost its investment is on players. The league’s current payrolls and transfer fees remain a fraction of those seen in the top European leagues. Without closing that gap, it will be difficult to lure and retain elite talent.
Atlanta United is among the clubs trying to push the envelope, breaking MLS records with the $22 million acquisition of striker Emmanuel Latte Lath. But even that sum pales in comparison to routine deals in the Premier League or other top circuits. Doing more business at that level will require MLS to further loosen its roster rules, many of which are viewed as overly restrictive.
“If you allow individual teams more freedom in terms of how they can construct their teams… I think you’ll get more creativity and innovation and you’ll get more efficiency in terms of how we use the marketplace.”
– Garth Lagerwey, Atlanta United
Maximizing the commercial boost and eyeballs from the 2026 World Cup in the U.S., Canada and Mexico will be crucial. MLS has high hopes, but some question whether the league is doing enough to capitalize on that unique spotlight.
Fixing the Broadcast Revenue Gap
Bridging the revenue chasm in broadcast rights may be an even stiffer challenge. MLS’ 10-year, $2.5 billion deal with Apple TV lags far behind the sums generated by top European leagues, to say nothing of other North American sports like the NFL and NBA. Without more cash flowing in from media contracts, it will be difficult to substantially hike spending.
“American sports fans have a straightforward mental model for how they watch sports on TV: It’s the best in the world or it’s not,” explains Bobby Warshaw of Bloom Sports Partners. “American sports fans will only tune in if they think you’re the best.”
The Pro/Rel Debate
Then there’s the ever-contentious topic of promotion and relegation. Many purists argue no league can be considered truly elite without the drama and meritocracy it provides. But MLS owners have balked at risking their significant investments in a closed franchise system.
“I have a general view that whoever does pro/rel first gets a pretty big check from somebody on the TV rights,” Warshaw predicts. “I think the American public’s going to be pretty interested in those high-stakes games.”
– Bobby Warshaw, Bloom Sports Partners
The upcoming debut of a Division 1 league by the USL may soon test that theory. But even if pro/rel remains elusive, most agree MLS must find ways to make more late-season games matter.
Leading or Following?
On the global stage, leagues around the world are increasingly borrowing innovations MLS helped pioneer, from salary caps and financial controls to VAR and youth academies. That’s a positive sign for the league’s influence and respect.
At the same time, MLS is feeling pressure to adopt some international norms like the European-based calendar and expanded free agency for players. Juggling its unique system with global realities will be an ongoing balancing act.
The Path Forward
Add it all up, and the mission for MLS to reach the world’s top tier by 2055 is clearly a monumental undertaking fraught with high stakes and hard choices. But the tantalizing potential is undeniable.
“The opportunity for MLS is immense, but so are the challenges,” concludes ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle. “The next 30 years stand to be as intriguing and dramatic as the first 30.”
– Jeff Carlisle, ESPN
As MLS embarks on its fourth decade, all eyes in the American and Canadian soccer spheres will be watching to see if it can navigate the daunting, ambitious path from surviving to thriving among the global elite. The delicate balance of risks and rewards in the pursuit of that audacious goal could define the next era of Major League Soccer.
