As fierce Santa Ana winds howl across southern California, wildfire experts warn of an imminent ‘particularly dangerous situation’ that could unleash catastrophic fires in the coming days and weeks. A potent combination of intense drought, tinder-dry vegetation, and powerful gusts has set the stage for what forecasters fear could be an unprecedented fire season.
Extreme Wildfire Conditions Loom Large
With the driest start to the rainy season in Los Angeles history and the specter of 70 mph Santa Ana winds this week, climatologists are sounding the alarm about the grave wildfire risks that lie ahead. The U.S. National Weather Service has issued its highest-level alert, cautioning that the volatile mix of elements could spark ‘explosive fire growth’ across the region.
“Winds will be strong enough to potentially cause explosive fire growth. Do not do anything that could spark a fire.”
– U.S. National Weather Service forecast briefing
Ventura County in the Crosshairs
Fire-prone Ventura County appears to be directly in the path of the most intense winds, with gusts potentially eclipsing the ferocity of last week’s Santa Ana event. Humidity levels could plummet as low as 5%, priming the landscape for explosive wildfire behavior and long-range spotting of burning embers.
Relentless Drought Worsens Fire Threat
Exacerbating the dire situation is California’s prolonged drought, which has parched soils and vegetation to record dryness for this time of year. The brittle fuels are poised to erupt given even a small ignition, elevating the fire hazard to levels typically not seen until the peak of summer.
- Fuel moisture levels approaching historic summer-like lows
- Dryness extending up central coast and Bay Area
- Even moderate winds could spark major conflagrations
LA on Track for Worst Drought in History
Los Angeles is currently mired in its 3rd straight year of severe rainfall deficits, with only a paltry 0.16 inches of precipitation since October 1st – just 2% of normal. Weather models suggest the city may see zero rain through February, an unprecedented situation during what are typically the wettest months.
“LA’s driest year in history still had more than 3 inches of rain by this point. We’re in uncharted territory with these drought conditions.”
– Eric Holthaus, Meteorologist
Climate Change Fuels Fire Weather Whiplash
The wildly swinging conditions, from 25+ inches of rain each of the past two winters to the current extreme drought, epitomize the “weather whiplash” that climatologists warn is a hallmark of climate change. The lush vegetation spurred by the wet years is now serving as kindling under the parched conditions.
With La Niña taking hold in the Pacific, seasonal forecasts suggest the drought will only intensify in the coming months, potentially spreading the fire threat northward. An extended high-pressure blocking pattern could shunt vital moisture away from California through spring.
Bracing for the Worst-Case Scenario
Fire agencies are ramping up staffing and positioning resources in anticipation of the ominous fire weather outlook. But with fuel moisture and humidity plummeting to record lows, officials fear even their herculean efforts may not be enough to thwart wind-driven firestorms.
- Prepare for extended power outages as utilities may preemptively cut electricity to prevent fires
- Have an evacuation plan and emergency kit ready to go at a moment’s notice
- Stay alert to evacuation orders and heed all emergency instructions immediately
With all signs pointing to a long, severe wildfire season ahead, Californians will need to remain vigilant and prepare for the worst. The coming days will be critical for firefighters working to contain the dozens of blazes already burning, but experts fear far worse is yet to come as the state faces down its most dangerous wildfire weather in modern history.
