As the United States appears poised to embrace the unpredictability of a second Donald Trump administration, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is honing in on what he can control amidst the looming upheaval. With Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election looking all but certain, the Albanese government is steeling itself for a raft of punishing tariffs on Australian exports, a contracting global economy, and a tectonic shift in the world’s power dynamics.
The imminent return of the 45th, and presumptive 47th, US president is expected to throw international trade into disarray as America turns inward and dons a fiercely protectionist mantle. This economic isolationism, coupled with the Republican party’s anticipated control of both the House and Senate, leaves little in the way of checks and balances on Trump’s impulses, whatever they may prove to be.
A World on Edge
Trump’s renowned unpredictability is set to ratchet up geopolitical tensions across the globe. In the Middle East, his likely eschewing of nuanced, ceasefire-oriented approaches to conflict resolution bodes ill. His anticipated support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian ambitions could embolden China’s Xi Jinping to pursue his own expansionist agenda more aggressively.
Indeed, China stands to gain significantly from a Trump victory. Should the US pull back from its assertive diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region, the nations of the area may well turn to the other major power in their midst. The concerted efforts to convince Australia’s Pacific neighbors that their future lies with Western allies, not China’s high-dependency checkbook diplomacy, could come to naught.
The China Question
In this scenario, China may be able to cast its totalitarianism as a virtue – the steady alternative to a capricious force much further afield. And should Xi persuade the American dealmaker to trade away protection of Taiwan’s independence, the consequences are anyone’s guess.
“Self belief is what the West needs right now and Trump has that in spades,” former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott posted on social media Tuesday evening.
– Tony Abbott, former Australian Prime Minister
On the upside, the Aukus nuclear submarine pact, with its bipartisan congressional support and freshly passed enabling legislation, appears unlikely to be significantly impacted – at least, that’s the current view.
Climate Concerns
However, the world’s already insufficient efforts to tackle the climate crisis are poised to be severely undermined. Trump is expected to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and pressure many countries to roll back their emissions reduction initiatives, giving others an excuse to follow suit.
Moreover, the influence of Trump’s powerful backers, such as billionaire Elon Musk, is set to grow. The implications of Musk’s closeness to the presidency for global communications, social cohesion, and myriad other issues remain murky at best.
Focusing on the Controllable
Faced with this daunting array of challenges, the Albanese government is zeroing in on what it can control. According to sources close to the matter, Australia’s highly regarded ambassador to Washington, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, has been diligently cultivating relationships with Trump confidants and potential future inner circle members.
Senior ministers and Albanese himself have held meetings with key figures in Trump’s orbit, seeking to build on these nascent ties. While some suggest Rudd’s past criticisms of Trump could hinder his personal dealings with the incoming president, the Australian ambassador has at least one point of commonality – he, too, staged a comeback, albeit one engineered by his parliamentary colleagues rather than the electorate at large.
As the US stands on the cusp of embracing Trump’s brand of unpredictability once more, Albanese and his government are focusing on the levers they can pull. In a world soon to be shaped by the whims of a mercurial leader, it may be all they can do.
