As the 2025 MLB season approaches, fans and analysts alike are poring over statistics to predict which National League teams will rise to the top. While superstars like Juan Soto and Paul Skenes grab headlines, a deeper dive reveals the numbers that could make or break each squad’s championship aspirations.
Diamondbacks Banking on Rotation Rebound
The Arizona Diamondbacks led the majors in runs scored in 2024, but their starting rotation’s 4.79 ERA ranked just 27th. Disappointing performances from big-money signings Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez torpedoed their playoff hopes. With both hurlers still under contract, the D-backs need a major bounceback to contend in a loaded NL West.
Braves Seek Offensive Resurgence
From the heights of 2023’s historically potent lineup, the Atlanta Braves plummeted to 15th in runs scored last season. Only Marcell Ozuna matched his offensive output from the prior year. Rebounding to their three-year average of 826 runs would likely vault the Braves back into the playoff picture, but an aging core leaves little margin for error.
Cubs Bullpen Seeks Consistency
The Chicago Cubs’ bullpen has been a perennial weak spot, ranking 25th in win probability added last season. New closer Porter Hodge offers hope, as the rookie sensation notched a 1.88 ERA and looks primed to become the Cubs’ first elite stopper in years. Solidifying the relief corps could be the key to a long-awaited return to October baseball at Wrigley Field.
Elly De La Cruz: Superstar in the Making?
How good would Elly De La Cruz be if he cut down on his strikeout rate?
That’s the tantalizing question for Cincinnati Reds fans after watching their dynamic shortstop whiff an MLB-high 218 times in a strong sophomore campaign. Even a modest improvement in contact rate could vault De La Cruz into the game’s elite, with his tantalizing blend of power and speed drawing comparisons to a young Fernando Tatís Jr.
Rockies Searching for an Offensive Spark
- Ezequiel Tovar led all qualified Colorado hitters with a meager .269 average in 2024
- The Rockies hit just .217 on the road as a team last season
Long gone are the days of Larry Walker, Todd Helton, and Nolan Arenado pacing softball-esque scoring totals at Coors Field. Unless Tovar takes a major developmental leap or GM Bill Schmidt unearths some hidden gems, the Rockies seem destined for the NL West basement once again.
Dodgers Betting on Rotation Depth
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ over/under win total is a staggering 103.5, despite no returning starter reaching 23 outings last year. Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Blake Snell have ace-level ceilings, but staying on the field has been a career-long challenge. LA’s unmatched pitcher development pipeline always keeps the cupboard stocked, but its depth will be tested like never before.
Juan Soto Chasing Mets History
Forget the $765M contract. If Juan Soto can match his Yankee production in orange and blue, he’ll deliver the single greatest offensive season in New York Mets history. John Olerud‘s 7.6 WAR 1998 is the current standard. Soto accounted for roughly 64 more runs than an average hitter last year, putting 8-win upside squarely in play for his prime-age 26 season.
Soto certainly has a chance to deliver the best batting season in Mets history.
Phillies Rotation: Elite Potential
Dave Dombrowski is betting on Jesús Luzardo as the final piece of a potentially dominant Phillies starting five. If the former Marlin can stay healthy, Philadelphia could conceivably surpass 20 WAR from its rotation – rarified air reached only by the 2011 Phillies staff led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. The NL East arms race is on.
Paul Skenes: Bucco Ace in the Making
The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t developed a true No. 1 starter since Doug Drabek in the early 1990s. Paul Skenes has the talent to end that drought after a historic 1.96 ERA rookie season. His ultimate 2025 ceiling? Try 8.5 WAR – unseen by a sophomore since Dwight Gooden’s iconic 1985. Health permitting, the NL Central could be Skenes’ kingdom for years to come.
Padres Infield Concerns Loom Large
Despite winning batting titles in three straight cities, Luis Arraez may find himself on the move once more. San Diego has reportedly gauged trade interest in the reigning NL hit king as they look to trim payroll and retool an aging infield. With Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar also hitting free agency, A.J. Preller will have his work cut out fortifying the lineup around Manny Machado and Fernando Tatís Jr.
Matt Chapman: Giants’ 30-Homer Hopeful
San Francisco last witnessed a 30-dinger campaign from one of its own in 2004, when Barry Bonds mashed 45. While new addition Willy Adames cleared that threshold twice as a Brewer, Oracle Park’s spacious confines pose a daunting challenge. If Matt Chapman’s 27-homer output stands as the Giants’ 2025 team lead, a power-infused lineup upgrade may be in order.
Cardinals Searching for Consistent Offense
At first glance, a 12th-place finish in NL runs scored looks like a one-year blip for the perennially contending St. Louis Cardinals. Alarmingly, it marked the fifth time in six seasons they’ve placed 10th or worse. Youngsters Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Ivan Herrera offer upside, but unless the Cards can unearth some hidden gems, a retool may loom on the horizon.
Nationals Place Faith in CJ Abrams
Shortstop CJ Abrams flashed tantalizing potential in his age-23 season, socking 20 homers to join rarified statistical company. Alas, major strides in plate discipline and defense are still needed to cement true franchise cornerstone status. With the rebuilding Nationals still years away from contention, Abrams’ individual growth will be the main attraction at Nationals Park.
From established superstars to unproven neophytes, the fates of 2025’s NL hopefuls could swing on these pivotal statistical inflection points. Rest assured, we’ll be tracking them all as the season unfolds – because in baseball’s new age of advanced analytics, every number tells a story.
