As we dive into Week 10 of the NFL season, savvy bettors are always on the hunt for those elusive prop bets that offer both value and a high probability of success. While the mainstream markets focus on sides and totals, there’s a treasure trove of under-the-radar props waiting to be discovered. In this article, we’ll explore some of the most promising hidden gems, backed by data-driven insights and advanced modeling techniques.
Defensive Player Props: Sacks and Tackles
When it comes to defensive player props, the key is to identify mismatches and exploit market inefficiencies. Our models suggest that Roquan Smith of the Baltimore Ravens is a prime candidate for the under on his tackles + assists prop. Despite his impressive numbers against the run, the Ravens’ matchup against the pass-heavy Cincinnati Bengals works in our favor. Look for Smith to fall short of his 9.5 line.
Similarly, Kyle Van Noy‘s sack prop is ripe for an under play. While his pass rush win rate is respectable, he’s likely running hot compared to his actual sack total. Trust the model and fade Van Noy at -125 to record 0.5 sacks or fewer.
Alternate Receiving Yards: Cooper Kupp
The Los Angeles Rams’ Cooper Kupp is a receiver that demands attention in the prop market. After a couple of weeks at reduced snap counts due to injury, Kupp played nearly every offensive down in Week 9. With a robust 29% target rate and a median receiving yards line of 70.1, our model loves the over on his alternate receiving yards prop of 90+ at +200.
Anytime Touchdown: Puka Nacua
Touchdowns are the holy grail of prop betting, and Puka Nacua of the Rams is a player to target in Week 10. Despite limited playing time due to injury and ejection, Nacua boasts impressive efficiency metrics, including the sixth-highest yards per route run since last season. At +140 to score a touchdown, the model sees significant value in this prop.
Running Back Receiving Props
Pass-catching backs can be a goldmine for prop bettors, but it’s essential to consider defensive tendencies. The Denver Broncos deploy man coverage at the highest rate in the league, which historically correlates with fewer running back receptions. That’s why we’re targeting the under on Kareem Hunt‘s 1.5 reception prop at even money.
Quarterback Interceptions
Interceptions can be the bane of any quarterback’s existence, but they can be a bettor’s best friend. Our research shows that the probability of a starting quarterback throwing a pick in any given game is remarkably close to 50%. Rookie Drake Maye of the New England Patriots may have a few factors working against him, but at +135, the under on 0.5 interceptions is too good to pass up.
As you can see, there’s no shortage of enticing prop bets flying under the radar in Week 10. By leveraging advanced analytics and exploiting market inefficiencies, bettors can uncover hidden value and elevate their betting strategies. Remember, the key is to focus on less efficient markets and trust the models when they point to a promising opportunity.
So, as you prepare for another exciting week of NFL action, don’t forget to dive deep into the prop markets. With a keen eye and a data-driven approach, you just might find the diamond in the rough that takes your betting to the next level.
