The world of soccer transfers is a high-stakes game, with clubs betting big on young talent in hopes of finding the next superstar. But as the saying goes, for every hit there are plenty of misses. We’ve analyzed the 25 most expensive U21 soccer signings between 1999 and 2022 to determine which clubs struck gold and who ended up with buyer’s remorse.
The Hits: Young Stars Who Justified Their Fees
Let’s start with the success stories. Kylian Mbappé tops the list as the most expensive U21 signing ever, moving from Monaco to PSG for a whopping €180 million in 2017. While PSG may have wanted to keep him longer, there’s no denying Mbappé delivered on his potential during his time in Paris.
Other notable hits include Matthijs de Ligt, who commanded an €85.5 million fee when he joined Juventus from Ajax in 2019. De Ligt held his own in Serie A before Juve recouped most of their investment in a transfer to Bayern Munich. Raheem Sterling also proved well worth the €63.7 million Man City paid Liverpool for his services in 2015, becoming an integral part of Pep Guardiola’s dominant side.
Real Madrid’s Brazilian duo of Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo have likewise blossomed into stars since their €45 million moves in 2017 and 2018 respectively. Both are now key figures at the Bernabéu. Meanwhile, RB Leipzig hit the jackpot with defender Josko Gvardiol, who arrived for €36.8 million in 2020 and left for Manchester City in a deal worth nearly triple that amount.
The Jury’s Still Out
For some expensive young signings, the final verdict remains unclear. Take João Félix, for example. Atlético Madrid splashed €127.2 million to sign the Portuguese forward in 2019, but he never quite found his footing in Diego Simeone’s system. Now on loan at Chelsea, the jury’s still out on whether Félix will deliver on his immense potential.
Christian Pulisic is another one to watch. Chelsea paid €64 million to bring the American winger over from Dortmund, but injuries have hampered his impact at Stamford Bridge thus far. A move to Milan could be the fresh start Pulisic needs to rekindle his Bundesliga form.
The Misses: Costly Transfer Flops
Of course, not every big-money U21 signing pans out as planned. Ousmane Dembélé‘s €145 million move to Barcelona in 2017 will go down as one of the costliest transfer misses in recent memory. Injuries limited the French forward to just 85 La Liga starts across six seasons at the Camp Nou.
Other notable disappointments include Anthony Martial, whose €60 million move to Man United in 2015 never quite lived up to the hype, and Renato Sanches, who struggled to make an impact at Bayern Munich after his €35 million transfer in 2016.
You’re rolling the dice when you spend big on young players, simply because they’re more difficult to assess.
– Talent scout at a Premier League club
Takeaways for Clubs in the Youth Transfer Market
So what lessons can we learn from this analysis of the most expensive U21 soccer transfers? A few key points emerge:
- Patience pays off when nurturing young talent. The most successful transfers saw the buying club give the player time to develop and adapt to a new league.
- Injuries are impossible to predict but can completely derail a young player’s progress after a big transfer. Clubs must have contingency plans.
- Spending huge fees on U21 players is extremely risky. The potential reward has to be a generational superstar to justify fees north of €100 million.
- Clubs can succeed by scouting hidden gems whose values haven’t yet skyrocketed. Buying in the €30-50 million range leaves room for a major profit if the player hits.
Ultimately, investing in young soccer talent is an art as much as a science. By studying the hits and misses of the past, clubs can hopefully tilt the odds in their favor and unearth the next Mbappé while avoiding the transfer flops that can set a team back for years.
