As the clock ticks towards the unveiling of the UK’s seventh carbon budget, all eyes are on Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The looming announcement from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) on February 26th will lay bare the monumental task ahead – slashing greenhouse gas emissions to a mere quarter of today’s levels by 2040. It’s a challenge that will put Starmer’s green credentials to the ultimate test.
While the budget’s timeframe extends well beyond the current parliamentary term, the policies needed to achieve these ambitious cuts must be set in motion much sooner. Starmer himself raised the bar at the Cop29 climate summit, pledging to reduce emissions by a staggering 81% compared to 1990 levels by 2035. Yet the seventh carbon budget will demand even more – a complete rewiring of the UK economy.
Decarbonization Across All Sectors
Achieving this will require a wholesale transformation that goes far beyond cleaning up the power sector. Transport, housing, farming, and industry must all undergo drastic changes:
- Transport: A mass shift to electric vehicles and a revival of public transport
- Housing: Widescale insulation retrofits and a transition from gas boilers to heat pumps
- Farming: Overhauling agricultural practices to cut emissions
- Industry: Deploying new low-carbon technologies and processes
The task is daunting, but as Ed Matthew from the E3G thinktank notes, it’s also an opportunity to make the UK economy globally competitive and restore nature. The question is, does Starmer have the political will to stand up to vested interests and push through the necessary changes?
Transport and Housing Hurdles
Two of the biggest obstacles lie in transport and housing. Transport has now overtaken energy as the UK’s most polluting sector, accounting for around 29% of total emissions in 2023. The government has promoted electric cars, but the explosion of SUV sales has negated much of the benefit. Aviation, left out of previous carbon budgets, will also be a major source of emissions in the 2040s.
Meanwhile, the UK’s ageing, poorly-insulated housing stock is responsible for a fifth of emissions. Progress in upgrading it has been glacial, and the installation of low-carbon heating like heat pumps will need to rapidly accelerate to meet the 2040 targets.
Confronting Agriculture and Dietary Change
Perhaps the most politically treacherous element lies in agriculture and land use – on track to become the UK’s biggest emitting sector within a decade if stronger policies aren’t enacted. Reducing meat and dairy production will be crucial, but Starmer is likely wary of being perceived as pushing dietary change from on high.
However, Mike Childs from Friends of the Earth argues that the shift to a lower-carbon diet “need not be a chore”, with more people voluntarily choosing plant-based options. Framed as a path to a healthier lifestyle and a better environment, Starmer could steer the UK in a greener direction without the nanny-state accusations.
Bipartisan Consensus Fracturing
Hovering over Starmer’s impending decision is the spectre of a Conservative opposition increasingly skeptical of the net zero agenda. The hard-won cross-party consensus on climate action, dating back to the 2008 Climate Change Act, has begun to erode under successive Tory leaders.
If Badenoch takes issue with the CCC’s findings, or vows to unravel the carbon budget should the Tories take back power, it would be an unmistakable sign that the crack has become a chasm.
In this polarized political landscape, Starmer faces a defining moment. By embracing the CCC’s recommendations, however challenging, he can cement the UK’s position as a global climate leader and demonstrate that decarbonization and a thriving economy can go hand-in-hand. Flinching in the face of political headwinds risks squandering this opportunity and undermining the very Climate Change Act his party brought to life. The future is watching – will Starmer meet the moment?
