In a pivotal development that has sent shockwaves through Kyiv and European capitals, top U.S. and Russian officials convened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for the most extensive bilateral negotiations in three years. The marathon five-hour meeting at Diriyah Palace aimed to lay the groundwork for an end to the devastating war in Ukraine, but the conspicuous absence of any Ukrainian or European representation at the talks has stoked deep unease about the trajectory of the peace process.
U.S. Signals Major Policy Shift on Russia
The high-stakes discussions between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Kremlin foreign policy chief Yuri Ushakov mark a seismic shift in Washington’s posture toward Moscow. In a stark departure from the Biden administration’s efforts to isolate Russia, the nascent Trump foreign policy team agreed to establish a senior-level group to support Ukraine peace negotiations and explore post-conflict economic opportunities with Russia.
While Rubio stressed that any resolution must be acceptable to “all involved, including Ukraine, Europe and Russia,” the lack of Ukrainian and EU participation in the Riyadh talks has sent an ominous signal. The U.S. appears to be forging ahead with its own vision for ending the conflict, one that may prioritize American and Russian interests over those of Ukraine and its European backers.
Diplomacy does not mean surrendering the interests and sovereignty of our state.
– Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Alarm Bells Ring in Kyiv and European Capitals
News of the U.S.-Russia summit provoked swift backlash from Kyiv, with President Zelenskyy vowing not to accept any outcome reached without Ukraine’s involvement. Speaking in Ankara alongside Turkish President Erdoğan, Zelenskyy declared: “Diplomacy does not mean surrendering the interests and sovereignty of our state.”
The Riyadh talks have left Ukraine and key European allies scrambling to secure a seat at the negotiating table. France hastily convened an emergency EU meeting to coordinate a joint response, but the gathering produced no concrete measures as leaders wrangled over the controversial idea of deploying European troops to Ukraine under a future peace deal.
U.S. Concessions Raise Red Flags
Even before the Saudi talks commenced, the U.S. made several significant concessions to Russia that have set off alarm bells. American officials signaled that Ukraine would likely have to abandon its NATO aspirations and accept some territorial losses as part of any settlement. They also floated the contentious proposal of sending an EU peacekeeping force to Ukraine post-ceasefire, an idea Moscow has flatly rejected.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov bluntly stated that stationing NATO troops in Ukraine under any guise was a “direct threat” to Russia’s interests. He also shot down a U.S. call for a mutual halt to strikes on civilian energy infrastructure, falsely claiming Russia had never targeted Ukraine’s power grid.
Putin’s Endgame: Rewriting Europe’s Security Architecture?
Moscow’s demands in Riyadh appeared to extend far beyond the immediate Ukraine conflict, hinting at a broader ambition to reshape the European security order in Russia’s favor. Some analysts believe Putin may resurrect the sweeping ultimatums issued on the eve of the invasion, such as a blanket ban on NATO deployments to post-1997 member states in Eastern Europe.
Such a capitulation would effectively abandon the Baltics, Poland, and other NATO frontline allies that fear bearing the brunt of future Russian aggression. There are also indications that Putin will leverage the Ukraine talks to push for a lifting of Western sanctions, which have battered the Russian economy.
Riyadh’s Balancing Act
For host Saudi Arabia and its leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, facilitating the U.S.-Russia dialogue offers a chance to burnish their diplomatic credentials on the world stage. Once spurned by President Biden over human rights abuses, MBS has skillfully maneuvered the kingdom into a pivotal mediator role between Washington and Moscow.
However, Riyadh’s delicate balancing act risks alienating Western partners if it is perceived as enabling a peace deal that rewards Putin’s aggression at Ukraine’s expense. As the closed-door talks continue, all eyes are on the desert kingdom to see if it can bridge the seemingly intractable divides and avert a wider transatlantic rift.
An Uncertain Road Ahead
As the U.S. and Russia chart a new course on Ukraine, the path ahead remains riddled with geopolitical minefields. Without buy-in from Kyiv and Europe, any bilateral deal risks dead-ending or, worse, fracturing the very alliance that has sustained Ukraine’s resistance. Trust deficits on all sides loom large.
For Ukraine, the prospect of a made-in-Riyadh settlement conjures painful memories of the failed Minsk accords, which Moscow wielded to cement its gains while continuing to arm separatist proxies. Zelenskyy is betting that Ukrainian battlefield successes and unwavering Western support will compel Putin to negotiate in good faith, but the Kremlin’s mercurial record leaves room for doubt.
As the U.S. navigates this geopolitical tightrope, it faces the herculean task of crafting a durable peace that holds Putin to account, safeguards Ukraine’s sovereignty, placates jittery European allies, and doesn’t undermine the post-war order it seeks to uphold. In Riyadh, Rubio framed the talks as the start of a “long and difficult journey.” The distance yet to travel can scarcely be overstated.
