As Donald Trump prepares for his second term as US President, an unexpected and potent alliance with billionaire Elon Musk is sending shockwaves across the Atlantic, leaving European leaders scrambling for a cohesive response. This transatlantic tag-team is wreaking diplomatic havoc, challenging the stability of the post-war order, and forcing the EU to confront its worst fears head-on.
The Return of Trumpian Irredentism
Trump wasted no time in resurrecting his controversial designs on Greenland, the semi-autonomous Danish territory rich in natural resources. In signature style, he’s made it clear that acquiring the island is “unfinished business” that he intends to resolve by any means necessary, economic strong-arming and military might included.
This territorial overreach extends beyond the icy north. Trump has also floated the idea of annexing parts of Canada, reclaiming the Panama Canal, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to reflect American dominance. While these notions might seem laughable, Europe isn’t chuckling. It’s a stark reminder of the “America First” ideology that defined Trump’s first term and strained traditional alliances.
Musk’s Digital Megaphone
Meanwhile, Elon Musk, the enigmatic tech mogul and key Trump ally, is leveraging his newly-acquired Twitter platform to amplify far-right voices across Europe. His overt support for fringe parties like Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany and endorsement of controversial figures like Tommy Robinson in the UK is sparking fears of a fascist resurgence, this time with a billionaire’s backing.
“Only the AfD can save Germany”
– Elon Musk’s controversial Twitter endorsement
Musk’s digital interventions are testing the limits of the EU’s ability to regulate Big Tech and safeguard democratic discourse. The Digital Services Act, enacted in 2022 to curtail online disinformation and extremism, seems toothless in the face of a determined Musk. Fines and threats have yet to materialize, leaving the field open for his brand of disruptive politicking.
Europe’s Hobson’s Choice
European capitals find themselves in a precarious position, torn between taking a principled stand against foreign interference and not wanting to draw the ire of the incoming US administration. The stakes couldn’t be higher with the war in Ukraine at a critical juncture and European security hanging in the balance.
Trump’s intention to meet with Vladimir Putin to “get that war over with” has set off alarm bells in every NATO capital. The fear is that the price of peace might be a mass giveaway of Ukrainian territory, a move that would shatter allied unity and embolden Russia. Europe is working overtime to massage the message and steer Trump away from any deal that undermines Kyiv.
An Alternate Path Forward?
Some observers see a silver lining in this tumultuous time, arguing that the stark reality of the Trump-Musk axis might finally spur Europe to stand on its own and invest in strategic autonomy. The thinking goes that if the US becomes an unreliable partner, then the EU has no choice but to step up and defend the liberal international order.
However, this optimistic take underestimates the depth of Europe’s divisions and its limited capacity to project power and manufacture advanced weaponry at scale. With populist forces on the march and economies still reeling from the pandemic, forging a united front will be an uphill battle.
As the Trump-Musk onslaught intensifies, one thing is clear: the transatlantic relationship is entering uncharted waters. The EU finds itself in a high-stakes battle not just for the soul of the continent, but for the future of the democratic world order. How it navigates these treacherous shoals will be the defining challenge of our time.
