As the dust settles on the US presidential election, Ukraine finds itself grappling with a new reality – one in which Donald Trump, known for his closeness to Vladimir Putin and isolationist tendencies, has emerged victorious. The news of Trump’s win was met with a swift and brutal response from Russia, as a barrage of drones struck the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, leaving buildings damaged and the nation reeling.
A Precarious Position
For Ukraine, Trump’s victory represents a seismic shift in the geopolitical landscape. Under the Biden administration, supporting Ukraine was seen as a means of defending the post-World War II order and degrading Russia’s capabilities without risking American lives. However, Trump’s isolationist stance and his history of praising Putin have raised concerns about the future of US support for Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, known for his extraordinary communication skills, rushed to congratulate Trump on his win, emphasizing the importance of “peace through strength” in bringing a just resolution to the conflict. Yet, the drone attack on Kyiv, coming mere hours after Trump’s victory, served as a stark reminder of the challenges that lie ahead.
The Trump-Zelenskyy Dynamic
Trump and Zelenskyy’s relationship has been a complex one, marked by the infamous phone call in which Trump pressed Zelenskyy to investigate Joe Biden. While the last Trump administration was the first to send lethal aid to Ukraine, it also froze military funding within hours of that call, only to unfreeze it later.
As a self-proclaimed dealmaker and strongman, Trump will likely want to avoid being seen as steamrolled by Putin. However, his minimal patience for detail and susceptibility to influence have raised doubts about his ability to navigate the intricacies of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Shifting Sands of Support
The landscape of international support for Ukraine is also shifting. With the collapse of Germany’s government and the emboldening of the far right in the wake of Trump’s victory, European efforts to support Kyiv may face new challenges. This, coupled with questions about the feasibility of a purely military solution, could lead to increased pressure for a negotiated end to hostilities.
For Ukraine, the accelerated delivery of promised US aid in the coming months may be its best hope of maximizing its position before Trump takes office. As a close source noted, “Ukraine’s situation, already so perilous, has grown vastly more so this week. The accelerated delivery of promised aid, allowing it to maximise its position before Mr Trump takes office, is now its best hope.”
Bracing for an Uncertain Future
As Ukraine braces for the potential impact of Trump’s presidency on its ongoing struggle against Russian aggression, the nation finds itself at a critical juncture. The coming months will be crucial in determining the future of US support and the trajectory of the conflict.
For now, Ukraine must navigate the shifting sands of geopolitics, seeking to secure its position and maintain the support of its allies in the face of an uncertain future. As the world watches, the resilience and determination of the Ukrainian people will be put to the test once more.
