The winds of change are blowing across the Middle East following the momentous US presidential election. For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the victory of his close ally Donald Trump is undoubtedly cause for celebration. However, as the dust settles, it’s becoming clear that even with a staunch supporter back in the White House, Israel may not have an entirely free hand in shaping the region’s future.
A Boost for Netanyahu, but Challenges Loom
Throughout the campaign, Netanyahu made no secret of his preference for a Trump win. The Biden administration had grown increasingly frustrated with the Israeli leader on multiple fronts, from obstructing aid to Gaza to supporting violent West Bank settlers. Trump’s return to power removes a key barrier to Israel’s ambitions in the occupied territories.
However, even with his close Washington ally, Netanyahu may not have a completely free hand. Trump has already indicated he wants an end to the Gaza conflict before taking office, though he would likely accept an Israel-friendly outcome. The president-elect’s position on a potential war with Iran also remains unclear, despite Netanyahu’s hopes for US support.
Domestic Politics and Regional Dynamics
On the home front, Trump’s victory is expected to accelerate Netanyahu’s push towards a more illiberal democracy in Israel. With a fellow populist leader in Washington, complaints about diluting the judiciary’s independence are unlikely to find receptive ears.
Regionally, the forces drawing Israel and Gulf Arab states together are poised to strengthen in the coming years. Saudi Arabia, another big winner from the US election, is expected to press ahead with normalizing ties with Israel, building on the Trump-brokered “Abraham Accords.”
The hesitation [on a Saudi-Israel deal] may be temporary. The forces of convergence between the Gulf monarchies, and an increasingly illiberal US and Israel, are likely to prove stronger in the four years to come than concern for the plight of the Palestinians.
– A diplomat familiar with the matter
Looming Flashpoints: Iran and Annexation
Two major issues loom as potential flashpoints in the US-Israel relationship under a second Trump administration: Iran and West Bank annexation.
On Iran, Netanyahu has long pushed for a US-backed war to destroy the country’s nuclear program. While Trump has been averse to starting new conflicts, some analysts believe the Israeli leader could potentially persuade him that a quick, forceful strike on Iran would yield an easy foreign policy win.
Meanwhile, Trump’s return takes the brakes off Israel’s ambitions to annex parts of the occupied West Bank and entrench its control over Gaza. Several of the president-elect’s close advisors are vocal supporters of the settler movement and its territorial aims.
The boost given to the annexationist wing of the Israeli far right may be the most immediate and momentous ramification of a Trump win for the Middle East, because of its potential to redraw the map.
– A senior US official speaking anonymously
An Uncertain Road Ahead
As the Middle East braces for the impact of America’s election, the only certainty is that the road ahead will be anything but smooth. For Netanyahu and Israel’s right-wing, Trump’s victory clears some obstacles but sets the stage for new tests.
Managing the expectations of a re-empowered far right, while navigating a US ally with its own unpredictable agenda, will require all of the Israeli leader’s political dexterity. If he overplays his hand on Iran or the Palestinian issue, Netanyahu could find himself at odds with his indispensable American partner.
In the coming months and years, the long-standing US-Israel alliance will face complex challenges, even with the two countries led by broadly aligned conservative populists. For better or worse, a second Trump term promises to be a transformative period for Israel and the wider Middle East – a time of high-stakes gambles and tectonic shifts, with the potential to redraw long-standing fault lines.
As the region holds its breath, all eyes will be on the fateful dynamic between two of its most influential players: a US president unbound by convention and an Israeli prime minister determined to seize the moment. Where their partnership ultimately leads remains an open and pressing question.
