As the war in Ukraine rages on, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for special envoy to the region has unveiled a controversial plan to force peace negotiations. Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who served as national security adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, is proposing to leverage U.S. weapons deliveries to pressure both sides to come to the table.
According to sources familiar with the proposal, the Kellogg plan would halt further arms shipments to Ukraine if Kyiv refuses to engage in peace talks with Moscow. At the same time, it warns Russia that if it does not negotiate, American military support for Ukraine will dramatically increase.
America First Approach Blamed for Conflict
The policy document, titled “America First, Russia & Ukraine,” lays the blame for the three-year war squarely at the feet of the Biden administration. It accuses President Biden of pursuing an “unserious and incoherent” foreign policy that antagonized U.S. allies and emboldened adversaries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
“An America First approach could have prevented the invasion,” Kellogg and his co-author, former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz, argue in the paper.
They contend that rather than scolding Vladimir Putin and threatening unprecedented sanctions as Russia prepared to invade, the U.S. should have focused on negotiations to de-escalate tensions. The authors claim this “hostile policy” needlessly turned Russia into an enemy and drove it into a strengthening alliance with China.
Carrot and Stick Strategy
Under the Kellogg-Fleitz plan, the U.S. would employ a carrot-and-stick approach to bring both warring parties to the negotiating table:
- Ukraine would be told further U.S. weapons deliveries are contingent on entering peace talks
- Russia would be warned of dramatically increased military aid to Ukraine if it refuses to negotiate
The goal is to make the cost of continuing the war prohibitively high for both sides. The authors acknowledge it would be difficult for Ukraine to accept any deal that doesn’t fully restore its territory. But they argue a lasting peace will require security guarantees and compromises from all parties.
Concerns Over Nuclear Escalation
The proposal comes amid rising tensions and a pattern of escalation in the conflict. Recent U.S. approval of longer-range missiles for Ukraine was met with Russia deploying powerful new weapons of its own. There are even reports that the outgoing administration has discussed providing Kyiv with nuclear arms, a prospect Moscow warns would be “absolutely irresponsible.”
While light on specifics, the Kellogg plan echoes earlier arguments from Gen. Mark Milley and others that neither side can achieve outright military victory. With casualties mounting, they contend that a negotiated settlement is the only path to ending the bloodshed.
“We’re worried this has become a war of attrition that’s going to kill a whole generation of young men,” Fleitz stated in a previous interview. “Our concern is that this has become a war of attrition that’s going to kill a whole generation of young men.”
Doubts and Divisions
It remains unclear if the incoming administration will adopt Kellogg’s controversial approach. Trump has said he’s “the only one who can get the war stopped,” but has not laid out a detailed strategy. His Vice President-elect, JD Vance, has expressed skepticism about U.S. involvement, arguing it diverts resources from countering China.
European allies are also likely to have doubts. The plan would require them to shoulder more of the aid burden, something Vance insisted upon in his convention speech. “No more free rides for nations that betray the generosity of the American taxpayer,” he warned.
As the Trump team prepares to take office, all eyes will be on whether they can succeed where so many have struggled. Keith Kellogg may soon have a chance to put his provocative proposals to the test – and the future of Ukraine hangs in the balance.
While light on specifics, the Kellogg plan echoes earlier arguments from Gen. Mark Milley and others that neither side can achieve outright military victory. With casualties mounting, they contend that a negotiated settlement is the only path to ending the bloodshed.
“We’re worried this has become a war of attrition that’s going to kill a whole generation of young men,” Fleitz stated in a previous interview. “Our concern is that this has become a war of attrition that’s going to kill a whole generation of young men.”
Doubts and Divisions
It remains unclear if the incoming administration will adopt Kellogg’s controversial approach. Trump has said he’s “the only one who can get the war stopped,” but has not laid out a detailed strategy. His Vice President-elect, JD Vance, has expressed skepticism about U.S. involvement, arguing it diverts resources from countering China.
European allies are also likely to have doubts. The plan would require them to shoulder more of the aid burden, something Vance insisted upon in his convention speech. “No more free rides for nations that betray the generosity of the American taxpayer,” he warned.
As the Trump team prepares to take office, all eyes will be on whether they can succeed where so many have struggled. Keith Kellogg may soon have a chance to put his provocative proposals to the test – and the future of Ukraine hangs in the balance.
