In a stunning reversal of decades of American foreign policy, President Donald Trump has effectively sold out Ukraine to Russia, leaving America’s European allies reeling. As the US retreats into an “America First” shell under Trump, the post-World War II order that has prevailed for nearly 80 years is unraveling at a dizzying pace – and America’s longest-standing allies find themselves at the mercy of a new age of imperial ambitions.
The Art of the Bad Deal
Trump, ever boastful of his dealmaking prowess, hailed the release of American Marc Fogel from a Russian prison as a diplomatic breakthrough – and a down payment on ending the war in Ukraine. But the price, it quickly became clear, was nothing short of total capitulation to Vladimir Putin’s demands.
In a flurry of statements from Trump’s new defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, the administration laid out what amounts to terms of surrender for Ukraine: Acceptance of Russia’s land grabs, no NATO membership, and no US troops to enforce the peace. For good measure, Trump also dangled American access to Ukrainian mineral wealth.
It’s appeasement. It has never worked.
– Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Europe Adrift
The response from Europe: disbelief and defiance. Estonian EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas did not mince words, calling Trump’s move “appeasement” and warning it will only embolden Putin. But behind closed doors, European leaders know their options are few without American military might behind them.
For decades, Europe has depended on the US security umbrella, to the point of designing their forces around the assumption of fighting alongside the Americans. Disentangling from that is, as one British analyst put it, like “unscrambling an omelette into its component eggs.” Hegseth bluntly told the Europeans to get cracking and hike defense spending to 5% of GDP – an astronomical figure.
Britannia Unbound?
Britain, long accustomed to “punching above its weight” on the global stage by virtue of its outsized role in US-led alliances, now finds itself starkly exposed. The shock of the disorderly American withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 left a bitter taste. Ukraine’s abandonment confirms the new reality: the US puts America first, allies second if at all.
British defence planners are facing the uncomfortable truth that the country’s army could be wiped out within six months in a major conflict. The old assumptions that the US would fill gaps in British capabilities no longer apply. A “Global Britain” without the global reach of its American partner is looking decidedly less global by the day.
A New Imperial Era
With the US in retreat, a new era of great power competition is taking shape – one in which the “imperial powers” of old are looking decidedly outmatched. America, China and Russia are the ones redrawing borders and controlling resources, while former colonial powers like Britain increasingly look like pawns on the chess board.
For all the well-earned disdain directed at America’s post-9/11 “world police” stance, a world without even the veneer of Pax Americana is shaping up to be a far more menacing place. Ukraine is merely the first victim; it is unlikely to be the last.
We can’t say we weren’t warned.
– Gaby Hinsliff
As Gaby Hinsliff writes in The Guardian, none of this should come as a surprise. Trump’s “America First” ethos has been consistent from the campaign trail on. But the world kept hoping that the responsibilities of leadership would temper his worst instincts. Instead, Ukraine’s tragedy looks likely to be only the first jolt in a wrenching new era of global disorder. And no one stands to lose more from that than America’s suddenly erstwhile allies.
