In a consequential foreign policy pronouncement, President Donald Trump has confirmed his administration’s intent to designate major Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs). The move, announced during Trump’s inaugural address, represents a significant escalation in the US approach to Mexico’s powerful criminal syndicates. While proponents argue the terrorist label will provide additional tools to combat cartels, critics warn it could pave the way for US military intervention and further strain bilateral relations.
Cartels as FTOs: New Designation, Old Threats
The roster of groups deemed FTOs by the United States government reads like a who’s who of America’s most formidable adversaries: al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, ISIS. Soon, if President Trump has his way, infamous Mexican drug cartels like the Sinaloa Cartel and Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) will join those ranks.
Trump framed the measure as essential to his plan to “wage war” on the cartels and combat the fentanyl epidemic devastating American communities. In recent weeks, he has accused Mexico’s government of being “essentially run by the cartels” – a characterization Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum swiftly rejected.
“We will work together, but we will not be subordinate,” Sheinbaum asserted. “Mexico is a free, sovereign, independent country. And we do not accept interference in our country.”
– Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum
The FTO designation would expand the range of actors US agencies could target under the auspices of confronting cartel activity. While current authorities focus on cartel leadership and logistics, the terrorist label would broaden potential targets to anyone providing “material support.” Legal experts warn this nebulous category could be interpreted to encompass an array of individuals only tangentially connected to the drug trade.
Military Strikes on the Table?
Perhaps most concerning is the prospect that the FTO designation could serve as a precursor to US military action on Mexican soil. Trump has previously mused about bombing drug labs and reportedly discussed deploying special forces to capture or kill cartel kingpins.
Security analysts caution that even if limited to drone strikes rather than boots on the ground, such operations would mark a drastic departure from long-standing US policy. “The international environment restraining the use of force is much more permissive than it was a few years ago,” notes Mónica Serrano of El Colegio de México.
Comparisons have been drawn to Israel’s cross-border strikes against adversaries deemed terrorists. If the US pursues a similar model, it could find itself embroiled in an intractable conflict on its southern frontier.
Militarized Approach Falls Short
Proposals for expanded military involvement harken back to Mexico’s own “war on drugs” launched in 2006. With US backing, the Mexican government deployed troops to confront the cartels head-on. But the militarized strategy failed to meaningfully disrupt drug flows while unleashing a tornado of violence that persists to this day.
Despite high-profile busts and seizures, the underlying drivers of cartel power – entrenched poverty, rampant corruption, weak rule of law, and insatiable US drug demand – went largely unaddressed. Without progress on these fronts, analysts argue, enhanced US military involvement is unlikely to yield better results.
Bilateral Relationship in Jeopardy
The terrorist designation also risks alienating the Mexican government at the outset of the Trump administration. Cooperation between the neighbors is already at a nadir following the arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leaders on US soil, which Mexico blames for touching off a new wave of cartel infighting that has left hundreds dead in Sinaloa state.
“It would be a huge blow to the bilateral relation,” warns María Calderón of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. “Let’s remember we have migration, mass deportations and the USMCA [trade pact] review on the agenda.”
– María Calderón, Wilson Center Mexico Institute
Experts say reestablishing security cooperation within an updated framework should be a priority for both governments. But the FTO designation threatens to poison the well before such efforts can even begin.
Follow the Guns, Money
Rather than expanding militarization, analysts argue the US could more effectively weaken cartels by stemming the southward flow of weapons from American gun shops and shows. Over 200,000 firearms purchased in the US wind up in cartel hands annually, directly fueling violence in Mexico.
Another pressure point is cartel finances. “Use sophisticated anti-money-laundering instruments and foreign asset control regulations to hit them where it hurts,” recommends Calderón. “Because cartels, at the end of the day, are businesses.”
As the Trump administration commences its confrontational approach to Mexican cartels, the stakes could not be higher – for the US, for Mexico, and for the stability of North America writ large. In the face of such complex challenges, sober analysis must guide policy. The terrorist designation, for all its rhetorical appeal, promises far more than it can actually deliver.
