As Donald J. Trump takes the oath of office for the second time, a sense of déjà vu mingles with deep uncertainty. The 45th president, whose turbulent first term shook up the Washington establishment, upended America’s traditional alliances, and reshaped geopolitics, is back in the Oval Office. But as he begins his encore, the question on everyone’s mind is: What will a Trump 2.0 presidency look like?
Making America Great Again, Again?
Trump’s 2016 campaign revolved around the slogan “Make America Great Again.” It resonated with millions of Americans who felt left behind by globalization, disenchanted with political elites, and eager for a disruptive force to shake up the system. Trump’s unorthodox style, brash rhetoric, and “America First” agenda upended the political playbook.
Now, as he embarks on his second term, Trump is doubling down on that approach. In his inaugural address, he vowed to “finish the job” and “restore America’s rightful place in the world.” But critics worry that Trump’s vision of American greatness comes at the expense of global stability and cooperation.
Putting America First, Allies Second?
One of the defining features of Trump’s first term was his transactional approach to alliances. He frequently complained that America’s NATO partners weren’t paying their fair share, threatened to withdraw troops from allies like South Korea, and imposed tariffs on long-time friends like Canada and the European Union.
That “America First” ethos strained relationships with many of the country’s closest allies. Leaders like Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron publicly clashed with Trump over issues ranging from climate change to Iran. As Trump begins his second term, many allies are bracing for more unpredictability and self-interest from Washington.
The concern in Europe is that Trump will continue his unilateral approach, making decisions that affect us without proper consultation. That undermines the trust and cooperation that the transatlantic alliance is built on.
– A senior European diplomat
“Fire and Fury” Foreign Policy?
On the global stage, Trump’s first term was marked by high-stakes showdowns with adversaries like North Korea and Iran, mounting tensions with rivals like China and Russia, and a retreat from multilateral institutions and agreements. His “fire and fury” rhetoric and penchant for personal diplomacy made for a volatile mix.
Now, there are fears that without the constraints of seeking re-election, Trump may be even more emboldened to take risky geopolitical gambles. With hotspots like Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela still smoldering, and great power competition intensifying, the potential for a serious international crisis can’t be dismissed.
- Iran: After withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and imposing “maximum pressure” sanctions, tensions between the US and Iran remain high. Hardliners in both countries could escalate matters.
- North Korea: Despite Trump’s historic meetings with Kim Jong Un, the North Korean nuclear threat is unresolved. A breakdown in talks could reignite the war of words, and worse.
Retreating from the World Stage?
Perhaps most concerning is the sense that under Trump, America is abdicating its traditional leadership role in the world. By spurning allies, sidelining multilateral institutions, and retreating from international agreements, critics contend that Trump has left a vacuum that other powers are eager to fill.
Russia and China, both of which clashed with Trump but also exploited opportunities created by his “America First” approach, seem poised to expand their influence. Meanwhile, America’s moral authority as a champion of democracy and human rights has been tarnished. A second Trump term risks accelerating these trends.
The world order that emerged after World War II, with the United States at its head, was already under strain before Trump. But his open skepticism of alliances, disdain for international norms, and transactional view of partnerships has greatly accelerated its erosion. It remains to be seen whether that damage can be reversed.
– Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations
Uncharted Territory
Of course, predicting what a second Trump term will bring is an exercise in uncertainty. His unorthodox style has frequently defied forecasts and confounded experts. For all the dire warnings, there’s a chance Trump could moderate his most disruptive impulses or take a more pragmatic approach to world affairs.
Progress on intra-Korean relations, breakthroughs in the Middle East peace process, or resolutions to long-simmering trade wars: all could be notches in Trump’s diplomatic belt. But so could a serious security crisis, a damaging rift with allies, or an open conflict with rivals. With Trump, expect the unexpected.
What does seem certain is that as Trump begins the sequel to his first turn on the world stage, all eyes will be watching to see how the script unfolds — with more than a little trepidation about the next plot twists. In a Trump 2.0 presidency, the one thing we can predict is unpredictability. Buckle up for a bumpy ride.
