The triumphant return of Donald Trump to the White House has been met with jubilation by Europe’s ascendant far-right, who see in the American firebrand a powerful ally sharing their populist, Eurosceptic worldview. From Viktor Orbán in Hungary to Giorgia Meloni in Italy, nationalists hailed Trump’s victory as vindication of their politics and a harbinger of history moving their way.
But behind the celebratory rhetoric, analysts warn that a second Trump presidency could actually make life significantly harder for Europe’s mini-Trumps, despite their ideological affinities. Rather than ushering in a golden age of transatlantic cooperation among nationalist soulmates, Trump 2.0 threatens to deepen rifts, exacerbate economic pain, and force Europe’s right into uncomfortable choices.
Rhetoric vs. Reality
There’s certainly political mileage to be gained from basking in Trumpian glory. His shock win lends legitimacy to right-wing grievances and gives credence to the idea that history is moving their way. Association with Trump can boost the electability of his European admirers.
But the political realities are far more complex. Trump’s brand of politics, while superficially aligned with Europe’s far-right on issues like immigration and hostility to global institutions, diverges in crucial ways that could lead to friction.
Stance on Ukraine and China
Take Ukraine. Italy’s Meloni has been a staunch supporter of Kyiv, backing sanctions on Moscow and ongoing military aid. That jars with the isolationist instincts of many in Trump’s orbit. Hungary’s Orbán, meanwhile, has courted Beijing as an economic partner – an approach anathema to Trump’s aggressively anti-China stance.
When Chinese state enterprise says jump, Hungarian officials ask how high.
– Mitch McConnell, commenting on Orbán’s stance on China
Economic Fallout
Then there’s the economic fallout from Trump’s promised America First trade policies. As part of the EU single market, Europe’s right would struggle to respond to punishing US tariffs without sparking a wider trade war that could devastate industry and jobs at home – the very base they rely on.
Far-right voters are already cooling on wholehearted Trump support, polls show. According to YouGov, Marine Le Pen’s supporters in France would have preferred to see Kamala Harris in the White House. The economic and security implications of an even more radical second Trump term seem to be concentrating minds.
Trump’s attitude towards Europe … will be harmful to far-right parties’ core electorate – think inflation, de-industrialisation, job losses. Trump is bad news for them.
– Catherine Fieschi, European University Institute
Turning Back to the EU?
Faced with a bullying, antagonistic Trump determined to put America first at Europe’s expense, the EU that nationalists have long reviled may start to look like the safer bet, some experts believe. European unity, for all its flaws, could become the harbor in a Trumpian storm.
Leaders like Orbán have tried to play both sides, but Trump’s return will force them to choose. Continuing to support a hostile Washington while depending on Brussels for economic survival will become an ever-more precarious balancing act.
Ultimately, Trump’s second coming threatens to make life “a lot harder” for Europe’s far-right, as sovereigntists and Eurosceptics, predicts Catherine Fieschi. Caught between an electorate battered by a Trump trade squeeze, and the imperative to preserve European unity in the face of an erratic US, some may start sounding a lot more pro-EU.
The next four years could see Europe’s “mini-Trumps” diverge, as differing national interests fracture any fleeting sense of a nationalist international. Rather than heralding a triumphant new alliance, Trump’s return may leave Europe’s far-right exposed, divided, and “out-populisted” by their estranged American idol.
