In a major shakeup that could foreshadow a more hawkish stance on China, president-elect Donald Trump is expected to name prominent China critics Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz to the key positions of secretary of state and national security adviser, according to sources close to the transition team.
The likely appointments of Rubio, a Florida senator, and Waltz, a Florida congressman and decorated combat veteran, point to an administration that will take a harder line against China on economic and military issues. Both Rubio and Waltz have long track records of opposing China’s growing influence and advocating for a more muscular U.S. response.
Rubio: Confronting China a Top Priority
As a presidential candidate in 2016, Rubio made confronting China’s “neo-imperialism” a central plank of his foreign policy platform. He has accused Beijing of using its economic might to bully neighbors and undermine U.S. interests in Asia.
“China is the most significant long-term geopolitical challenge we face,” Rubio said in a 2019 speech. “The Chinese government is playing a zero-sum game internationally in which it seeks to gain at the expense of others, including the United States.”
If confirmed as secretary of state, Rubio would be the first Latino to hold the position. While his hawkish views on China align with Trump’s campaign rhetoric, they represent a departure from Trump’s stated preference for a more restrained foreign policy focused on ending “endless wars.”
From Foe to Adviser
Rubio’s journey from Trump foe to key adviser has been a remarkable evolution. As a rival for the 2016 Republican nomination, Rubio attacked Trump as a “con artist” and criticized his preparedness to be commander-in-chief.
But in the years since, Rubio has become a reliable ally, helping Trump prepare for debates and offering informal foreign policy advice. Sources say Rubio’s willingness to adapt his positions to be more in line with Trump’s, such as taking a less interventionist stance in Europe, helped win the president-elect’s trust.
“I’m not on Russia’s side – but unfortunately the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement,” Rubio said in September.
Waltz: Combat Veteran and China Watcher
For the influential position of national security adviser, Trump is expected to tap Mike Waltz, a Green Beret and former Pentagon official who has sounded alarms about China’s military and technological advances.
A combat-decorated veteran with multiple tours in Afghanistan, Waltz transitioned to policymaking roles in the George W. Bush administration, serving as a counterterrorism adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney and as a senior Pentagon aide to Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates.
As a congressman since 2018, Waltz has focused on China and the Indo-Pacific. He has criticized Beijing’s military buildup, construction of island bases in the South China Sea, and efforts to dominate the global 5G infrastructure.
“The Chinese Communist Party has been racing to develop and modernize its military with the goal of achieving the capability to invade and conquer Taiwan in this decade,” Waltz warned in a 2022 op-ed.
Contrasting Approaches
While Rubio and Waltz align in their China hawkishness, their backgrounds suggest they may diverge in other areas. Rubio, stung by the Iraq War, has gravitated towards a more cautious approach to military intervention. Waltz, meanwhile, has criticized the “disastrous” withdrawal from Afghanistan and urged continued counterterror operations.
How they reconcile these contrasting impulses on the use of force will shape the direction of Trump’s foreign policy. Trump himself has oscillated between bashing military adventures and threatening fierce retaliation against adversaries.
Lingering Ambiguity
Even with Rubio and Waltz on board, ambiguity remains about how exactly the Trump administration will approach the China challenge. On the campaign trail, Trump alternated between railing against China’s “rape” of the American economy and praising President Xi Jinping as a strong leader and potential partner.
Some analysts see the Rubio and Waltz selections as a victory for the Republican foreign policy establishment eager to box Trump in and limit his dealmaking flexibility with Beijing. Others caution that an erratic, overbearing commander-in-chief will ultimately call the shots.
“At the end of the day, Trump is going to be Trump,” a former senior national security official told the Guardian. “He prides himself on his unpredictability and transactional nature. Not even a cabinet of hawks can stop Trump from being Trump.”
As the new administration takes shape, all eyes will be on how it translates campaign bluster into actual China policy. Will it take a confrontational approach, ramping up freedom of navigation patrols, boosting support for Taiwan, and imposing new economic penalties? Or will Trump’s dealmaking instincts lead him to an uneasy accommodation with Beijing? Much remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: with Rubio and Waltz advising him, Trump will have plenty of China hawks whispering in his ear.
