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Trump Stands by Gaetz Despite Slim Senate Confirmation Odds

In a high-stakes political gambit that has Washington buzzing, President-elect Donald Trump is forging ahead with his controversial nomination of Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general, even as a growing number of senators express doubts about Gaetz’s ability to win confirmation amid explosive allegations of sexual misconduct.

According to sources close to the transition, Trump has privately acknowledged to associates that Gaetz, a staunch ally and firebrand conservative from Florida, faces an uphill battle in the Senate, where his nomination has been met with skepticism and outright opposition from both Democrats and a handful of key Republicans. In fact, Trump is said to believe Gaetz’s chances of being confirmed are less than 50-50.

Yet rather than backing down or seeking an alternative nominee, the president-elect has doubled down on his support for Gaetz, working the phones to personally lobby senators and extol Gaetz’s qualifications for the nation’s top law enforcement post. Trump’s calculation, insiders say, is that even if Gaetz ultimately falls short, the aggressive push will send a message and help redefine the boundaries of acceptability for future cabinet picks.

A Pattern of Provocative Picks

The Gaetz nomination is part of a larger pattern of provocative and norm-busting selections by the incoming Trump administration, which has put forward several candidates who face significant confirmation hurdles due to their controversial backgrounds, extreme views, or lack of traditional qualifications.

Among them are Pete Hegseth, a Fox News commentator and Iraq War veteran nominated to lead the Pentagon despite his history of Islamophobic statements and promotion of conspiracy theories, and Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic congresswoman turned right-wing firebrand tapped to serve as director of national intelligence.

Perhaps most eyebrow-raising of all is Trump’s pick for secretary of health and human services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the notorious anti-vaccine activist and scion of the famed political dynasty. Kennedy’s selection has alarmed public health experts and drawn rebukes from members of both parties.

Gaetz’s Troubled Past

But it is Gaetz’s nomination that has generated the most intense controversy and resistance on Capitol Hill. The 40-year-old congressman, known for his brash style and unabashed Trumpism, is dogged by allegations that he paid underage girls for sex and shared naked photos and videos of his sexual partners without their consent.

While Gaetz has vehemently denied wrongdoing and has never been charged with a crime, the allegations were serious enough to trigger a lengthy FBI investigation as well as an inquiry by the House Ethics Committee. Though the Justice Department ultimately declined to bring charges, many questions remain.

Now, with Gaetz poised to take over the very department that investigated him, and vowing a politicized “purge” of officials deemed insufficiently loyal to Trump, concerns have only intensified. Gaetz’s critics say his confirmation would represent a dangerous erosion of the DOJ’s independence and integrity.

Damaging New Details Emerge

Further complicating Gaetz’s path is the emergence of new details about his alleged misconduct. The Guardian has learned that an unknown hacker recently gained access to sworn testimony from an anonymous woman who claims she had sex with Gaetz when she was 17. The testimony was contained in a cache of confidential legal documents.

According to a source who reviewed the hacked materials, the exhibits also contain corroborating testimony from a second woman who allegedly witnessed the sexual encounter between Gaetz and the underage girl. It’s unclear why the files were hacked or if the anonymous accusers plan to come forward publicly.

If Gaetz’s nomination moves forward, he could end up facing his accusers live and under oath before the Senate Judiciary Committee – a spectacle that even some Trump allies are dreading as a disastrous “media circus” that could derail the administration’s early momentum.

Senate Math Looks Bleak

With a 53-47 Republican majority in the new Senate, Gaetz can afford to lose no more than three GOP votes if all Democrats stay united in opposition, as is widely expected. But already, more than a half-dozen Republican senators have indicated they are leaning against confirmation or have serious doubts.

“We’re looking at an attorney general nominee who has baggage you could see from space,” said one Republican Senate aide, speaking on condition of anonymity. “This isn’t a hill anyone wants to die on.”

Still, Trump and his allies see the Gaetz nomination as a test of party loyalty and resolve. His staunchest backers, including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan, have mounted an aggressive pressure campaign targeting wavering Republican senators with threats of primary challenges if they defect.

Even some of Trump’s own advisers have expressed unease with the scorched-earth tactics, warning that forcing senators to “walk the plank” for a doomed nominee risks squandering valuable political capital at the outset of the new administration. But Trump appears undeterred.

Musk Backs Gaetz as ‘Judge Dredd’

Among Gaetz’s most vocal and influential cheerleaders is Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur who has emerged as a key Trump booster and validator. In a recent post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, Musk hailed Gaetz as “the JUDGE DREDD America needs to clean up a corrupt system and put powerful bad actors in prison.”

The reference to the iconic comic book antihero – an uncompromising enforcer who acts as judge, jury and executioner – underscores the almost apocalyptic stakes that Trump and his loyalists have sought to attach to the Gaetz nomination. For them, it’s not just about one controversial cabinet pick, but an epochal battle over the future direction of the country.

As the confirmation battle looms, all eyes are on the Senate, where Gaetz’s fate – and perhaps the tone and tenor of the entire Trump presidency – will ultimately be decided. It’s a high-risk, high-reward play that will test the new president’s power, influence and ability to bend the GOP to his will.

For Trump, who revels in conflict and dominating the national conversation, the Gaetz fight may be exactly the kind of disruptive spectacle he craves. But with control of the Justice Department hanging in the balance, the stakes for the country could hardly be higher.