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Tropical Storm Rafael Strengthens in Caribbean, Nears Hurricane Status

As Tropical Storm Rafael churns through the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, residents and officials across the region are bracing for its potential impacts. The storm, which formed on November 5th, 2024, has been steadily gaining strength and is expected to reach hurricane status before making landfall in Cuba.

Intensification and Projected Path

According to the National Hurricane Center, Rafael’s maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) as it moves north-northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm is forecast to continue intensifying over the next 24 hours, potentially reaching Category 1 hurricane strength with winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or higher.

Rafael’s projected path takes it over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening, where it could bring damaging winds, storm surge, and destructive waves. The storm is then expected to make landfall in Cuba on Wednesday, before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico and approaching the US Gulf Coast.

Heavy Rain and Flood Risks

In addition to strong winds, Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to produce heavy rainfall across its path. Meteorologists have warned that the higher elevations of Jamaica and Cuba are particularly vulnerable to flash flooding and mudslides.

“Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should have a nasty day and night with western Cuba getting it tomorrow,” noted Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore.

As the storm approaches the US Gulf Coast later in the week, it is forecast to bring heavy rains to several states, including Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Although Rafael is expected to weaken due to cooler waters and dry air, it could still pose a significant flood threat.

Preparations and Precautions

Authorities in the affected areas are urging residents to stay informed and take necessary precautions. In the Florida Keys, where tropical storm conditions are possible starting Wednesday night, officials are closely monitoring the storm’s progress.

  • Stock up on essential supplies, such as food, water, and medications
  • Secure loose outdoor items and prepare for potential power outages
  • Follow evacuation orders if issued by local authorities
  • Keep an emergency kit ready, including flashlights, batteries, and first-aid supplies

For Cuba, which is still recovering from the devastating impacts of Hurricane Oscar just weeks ago, Tropical Storm Rafael presents an additional challenge. The island nation is grappling with a severe economic crisis, which could complicate disaster response and recovery efforts.

An Unusually Active Hurricane Season

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which has been exceptionally active. If the storm reaches hurricane strength as predicted, it will become the 11th hurricane of the season, surpassing the average of 7.

Experts attribute the heightened storm activity to record-high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, a consequence of human-driven climate change. The 2024 season has already seen several devastating hurricanes, including Hurricane Milton, which caused an estimated $50 billion in damages in Florida, and Hurricane Helene, which claimed hundreds of lives in North Carolina.

As Tropical Storm Rafael continues its path through the Caribbean, residents and authorities remain vigilant, hoping to mitigate the potential impacts of yet another powerful storm in an already destructive hurricane season.