The 2024 fantasy football season may still be months away, but savvy managers are already poring over projections and rankings to gain an edge on the competition. One key metric drawing attention is Expected Fantasy Points (xFP), which strips away player talent and efficiency to hone in on pure opportunity. And when it comes to tight ends, one name towers above the rest: Travis Kelce.
Kelce Continues His Dominance
Fresh off another stellar campaign, the Kansas City superstar sits atop the xFP leaderboard with a whopping 114 points. While his 100 actual points fell slightly short of projections, Kelce still delivered elite production with 48 receptions, 487 yards, and 2 touchdowns. At age 34, he shows no signs of slowing down.
Kelce’s chemistry with Patrick Mahomes is unrivaled. As long as those two are together, he’ll be a fantasy stud.
An AFC scout told ESPN
Incredibly, Kelce is working to expand his route tree and improve his yards per reception in his 11th season. While Father Time is undefeated, Kelce looks poised to keep rewarding fantasy managers who invest an early pick in the perennial All-Pro.
Young Guns Shoot Up Rankings
Nipping at Kelce’s heels is a pair of rising stars: Brock Bowers and Cade Otton. Bowers, the 2023 first-rounder, matched Kelce’s 114 xFP while outpacing him in actual points thanks to a dynamic skill set and red zone prowess. The Raiders’ aerial attack should keep Bowers in the fantasy spotlight for years to come.
Otton enjoyed a breakout in his second season, compiling 109 xFP on 45 receptions, 413 yards and 4 scores. With Tom Brady retired, his production with Jordan Love under center will be a storyline to watch in 2024. The upside is certainly tantalizing.
Veterans Round Out Top 10
Established stars like George Kittle, Dalton Kincaid, and Zach Ertz put up solid xFP numbers and remain weekly starters. However, age and injury concerns could lead some fantasy managers to pivot to upside plays in the middle rounds, such as Isaiah Likely and Kyle Pitts. The position gets dicey fast after the tier one options are off the board.
A few names to monitor as training camps open:
- Jonnu Smith, Dolphins: The former Patriot gets a fresh start in Miami and could be a red zone weapon.
- Noah Fant, Seahawks: Showed flashes in 2023 and has a QB upgrade in Dan Marino.
- Tyler Conklin, Jets: Solidified himself as a security blanket for Archie Manning Jr.
- Pat Freiermuth, Steelers: Could be poised for a Year 3 leap with Kenny Pickett.
As the xFP leaderboard reminds us, opportunity is king in fantasy football. By digging into this data, drafters can find the volume plays to target and the landmines to avoid. While projections are an inexact science, they provide a roadmap for the season ahead – one that savvy managers can use to steer their way to a title.
The tight end position is top-heavy but also riddled with sleepers and breakout candidates. Whether you spend up for Kelce, invest in the next generation of studs like Bowers and Otton, or roll the dice on an upside play, having a plan is paramount. Because once the games begin, all that matters is performance – and whose weekly stat lines can carry you to glory.
