The 2024 NFL season may only be halfway through, but teams are already setting their sights on the upcoming 2025 draft. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projections, the New York Giants and New England Patriots are currently leading the charge for the coveted No. 1 overall pick.
Giants, Patriots in Prime Position
With identical 2-8 records, the Giants and Patriots find themselves at the top of the projected draft order. The FPI gives New York a 17.3% chance of securing the first selection, while New England trails closely behind at 16.1%. Both teams have endured disappointing seasons thus far, but the opportunity to select a franchise-altering talent could provide a silver lining.
The Giants, who last held the No. 1 pick in 1965, could be poised to make a splash. Quarterback Daniel Jones, drafted 6th overall in 2019, has struggled with consistency and injuries. A top pick could allow New York to select a new face of the franchise or bolster their roster with elite talent at other positions.
Meanwhile, the Patriots find themselves in unfamiliar territory. After two decades of dominance under head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, New England has struggled to find stability at the game’s most important position since Brady’s departure in 2020. Landing the top pick could provide the Patriots with a much-needed reset and the opportunity to build around a young, promising quarterback.
Jaguars, Raiders in the Mix
Close behind the Giants and Patriots are the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders, both sporting 2-8 records. The Jaguars, who drafted quarterback Trevor Lawrence first overall in 2021, have a 14.2% chance at the top pick according to the FPI. Adding another blue-chip prospect could accelerate their rebuilding process and provide Lawrence with a dynamic weapon.
The Raiders, despite aggressive moves in recent years, find themselves with a 12.2% shot at the No. 1 selection. Head coach Jon Gruden’s sudden departure in 2021 and the inconsistent play of quarterback Derek Carr have left Las Vegas searching for answers. A top pick could help the Raiders address key needs and reshape their identity under new leadership.
Draft Positioning Critical for NFL Success
In a league driven by parity, securing a top draft pick can be the catalyst for a franchise’s resurgence. Teams like the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers have recently reaped the benefits of selecting game-changing talents like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert early in the draft.
Getting that top pick, especially in a year with a highly-touted quarterback prospect, can change the trajectory of a franchise. It’s a chance to inject new life into a struggling team and energize the fanbase.
NFL Draft Expert, speaking on condition of anonymity
However, success is far from guaranteed. The pressure to “get it right” with a top selection can be immense, and history is littered with cautionary tales of highly-drafted prospects who failed to live up to expectations.
The Road Ahead
As the 2024 season enters its final stretch, the jockeying for draft position will only intensify. Teams on the fringe of playoff contention may face difficult decisions about whether to prioritize winning or improving their draft stock.
For the Giants, Patriots, Jaguars, and Raiders, the next eight weeks will be critical in determining their draft fate. While the ultimate prize of the No. 1 pick will only be awarded to one team, the opportunity to select near the top of the board could prove franchise-altering for any of these struggling squads.
As the saying goes, “the draft is where champions are built.” For the teams at the top of the 2025 draft order, the chance to lay the foundation for future success starts now. The road ahead may be uncertain, but the promise of a brighter tomorrow lies just around the corner.
