As the NFL playoffs heat up, all eyes will be on the league’s top playmakers to see who can deliver game-changing touchdowns. Heading into the divisional round, ESPN’s Mike Clay has crunched the numbers to predict the most likely anytime touchdown scorers. Let’s dive into his top 20:
Clay’s Crystal Ball: 20 Predicted TD Scorers
Using a combination of advanced analytics and betting odds, here are the players with the highest probability of scoring a touchdown in the divisional round, according to Clay:
- Derrick Henry (BAL RB) – 72% probability, -240 odds
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET RB) – 70% probability, -240 odds
- David Montgomery (DET RB) – 65% probability, -160 odds
- Joe Mixon (HOU RB) – 62% probability, +125 odds
- Jalen Hurts (PHI QB) – 59% probability, -135 odds
Rounding out the top 10 are Saquon Barkley (PHI RB), James Cook (BUF RB), Josh Allen (BUF QB), Kyren Williams (LAR RB), and Zay Flowers (BAL WR). The Ravens’ dynamic backfield duo of Henry and Flowers could spell trouble for the Bills defense.
Best Bets at Wide Receiver
If you’re looking to bet on a wideout to score, here are Clay’s most likely candidates:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) – 46% probability, -130 odds
- A.J. Brown (PHI) – 44% probability, +145 odds
- Xavier Worthy (KC) – 40% probability, +200 odds
- Jameson Williams (DET) – 40% probability, +140 odds
Worthy stands out as an intriguing value play at +200 odds. The speedy Chiefs rookie has emerged as a dangerous deep threat for Patrick Mahomes.
Tight Ends to Target
Three tight ends cracked Clay’s top 20, offering enticing betting options at a typically touchdown-dependent position:
- Sam LaPorta (DET) – 39% probability, +145 odds
- Mark Andrews (BAL) – 38% probability, +130 odds
Andrews has been Lamar Jackson’s most trusted red zone target all season. Expect the Ravens to look his way early and often against the Bills.
– Mike Clay, ESPN
Don’t Forget the QBs
While the running backs dominate the list, two quarterbacks are strong bets to score rushing touchdowns:
- Jalen Hurts (PHI) – 59% probability, -135 odds
- Josh Allen (BUF) – 53% probability, -115 odds
Both Hurts and Allen are dangerous runners near the goal line. Their dual-threat abilities make them top options in anytime TD props.
Betting Strategy
When placing your touchdown bets for the divisional round, consider these key factors:
- Matchups: Analyze how each team’s offensive strengths match up against their opponent’s defensive weaknesses
- Injury Impact: Monitor practice reports to see if any key playmakers are limited or out
- Bet the Odds: Prioritize value bets like Xavier Worthy (+200) that offer a strong probability relative to the payout
With these predictions and betting insights, you’re well-equipped to profit from touchdown props in the divisional round. Enjoy the games, and may your wagers be winners!
