In a stunning turn of events that could reshape the course of Syria’s long-running civil war, insurgent forces have launched a new offensive in the central province of Hama just days after seizing control of the key northern city of Aleppo. The rebel advance threatens to sever a critical government supply route and deal a potentially decisive blow to the embattled regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
Violent Clashes Reported as Rebels Push South
According to the Syrian state news agency SANA, government troops are engaged in “violent confrontations” with armed opposition groups across Hama province. The attacks come on the heels of a lightning offensive that saw a coalition of rebel factions, led by the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), capture the country’s largest city and industrial hub of Aleppo over the weekend.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on an extensive network of on-the-ground sources, reported that rebel forces had managed to seize several towns in Hama “in the last few hours” despite intense bombardment by Syrian and Russian warplanes. “Syrian and Russian air forces carried out dozens of strikes on the area,” the monitoring group said.
A Strategic Crossroads
The central city of Hama holds vital strategic importance in the complex web of Syria’s decade-old conflict. It sits astride the M5 highway, a critical artery connecting Aleppo in the north to the regime’s coastal strongholds of Latakia and Tartous, as well as the capital Damascus to the south. If the rebels can consolidate their grip on the Hama countryside, it would effectively cut the government-held west of the country in two.
Hama has long been a center of resistance to the Assad family’s rule. The city rose up in 1982 only to be brutally suppressed by Bashar’s father Hafez in a massacre that killed tens of thousands.
A Syrian analyst who requested anonymity
Alarm Bells in Damascus
The sudden collapse of government defenses in Aleppo, Syria’s second city and an important industrial center, has clearly set off alarm bells in Damascus. According to an AFP journalist in northern Hama, dozens of abandoned Syrian army tanks and armored vehicles could be seen lining the road leading to the provincial capital, suggesting a headlong retreat in the face of the rebel onslaught.
With government forces now on the back foot, the coming days could prove crucial in determining whether the insurgents have the momentum to press their advantage and threaten Assad’s grip on power, or whether his allies in Russia and Iran will step up their military support to help beat back the assault. The UN’s human rights chief, Volker Türk, said he was “extremely concerned” about reports of Syrian and Russian air strikes causing civilian casualties, including many women and children.
A Blow to Normalization Hopes
The dramatic rebel gains have thrown into disarray recent diplomatic efforts to rehabilitate Assad and end his status as an international pariah. “Let’s be clear, Assad is a brutal dictator with blood on his hands, the blood of innocent civilians. Our position has not changed,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Monday, pouring cold water on any hopes of a thaw in relations between Washington and Damascus.
As the Syrian conflict enters a new and unpredictable phase, the shifting tides of battle could once again reshape the geostrategic chessboard, with Turkey, Russia, Iran and the West all jostling to defend their interests and secure their spheres of influence. But for the millions of war-weary Syrian civilians trapped between the competing armed camps, the rebel advance will likely bring more uncertainty, displacement and bloodshed.
