As the Russia-Ukraine conflict approaches the three-year mark, a disconcerting shift in public sentiment is emerging across Western Europe. According to a recent YouGov survey spanning seven countries, enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine “until it wins” has markedly diminished over the past 12 months. This waning resolve comes at a precarious juncture for Ukraine, as Russia’s advances have accelerated to the fastest pace since the early months of the invasion.
Eroding European Backing for Ukraine’s Victory
The YouGov poll, conducted in December across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, and the UK, revealed that the once-fervent desire to stand with Ukraine until victory, even if it meant prolonging the war, had plummeted in all seven nations compared to a year prior. Instead, a growing proportion now favors a negotiated end to the fighting, even if it leaves Russia in control of some Ukrainian territory.
While majorities in Sweden and Denmark still back Ukraine until triumph, that support has eroded by double digits since January 2023. The UK, previously a staunch ally, saw backing for Ukraine’s victory slide from 50% to 36%. Simultaneously, those preferring a negotiated peace swelled in Italy, Spain, France, and Germany, with that option now eclipsing unconditional support in those countries.
Trump’s Return Fuels Uncertainty
Compounding Ukraine’s challenges is the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House. The president-elect has boasted of his ability to swiftly end the war, albeit without outlining his strategy. His Ukraine envoy is poised to embark on a European tour in January, stoking fears that Trump may abandon Kyiv.
Majorities in Germany, Spain, Britain, France, and Italy think it’s likely Trump will cut off support to Ukraine.
-YouGov poll
While European views are mixed on whether Trump will follow through on withdrawing from NATO, the prospect of reduced American military aid has rattled allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed Trump’s victory amid frustrations with the incremental approach of the outgoing administration, yet analysts remain skeptical that Putin will engage in acceptable terms.
Struggle to Defend Against Russia’s Advance
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces are grappling to defend cities and towns in the eastern Donbas region as Russia leverages its still-superior military might. Deploying glide bombs to target defensive positions, then employing unrelenting artillery fire and infantry assaults, Russian troops have seized several key locations at the swiftest pace since early in the invasion, exposing vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s defenses.
A Pivot Toward Negotiation?
As the conflict’s resolution seems distant, with neither a definitive Russian nor Ukrainian victory widely expected in the coming year, a growing share of Europeans anticipate a negotiated settlement. This shift in outlook is most pronounced in Denmark, Germany, the UK, France, and Italy. However, the path to such an agreement remains murky, with Putin reiterating maximalist objectives and Zelenskyy unwilling to relinquish occupied land.
The fading appetite for a protracted war, coupled with the uncertainty of continued American support under Trump, may force Ukraine and its allies to confront difficult compromises. While NATO has implored against premature discussions, warning of the risks of a Putin victory, the cracks in European solidarity cannot be ignored.
As Ukraine faces mounting military challenges and eroding international backing, the prospect of a settlement that involves painful concessions looms larger. The coming months will test the resilience of the Western coalition and the fortitude of the Ukrainian resistance as the war enters an uncertain new chapter.
