As the NBA season rounds the corner on its third week, fantasy basketball managers find themselves grappling with crucial decisions. Highly drafted players like Rudy Gobert and Anfernee Simons have failed to live up to lofty expectations, while the heralded 2024 rookie class is off to a collectively sluggish start. In the face of these early disappointments, is it time to smash the panic button? Or does patience remain a virtue?
The Case of Rudy Gobert
Entering the season, many fantasy pundits expected the towering Frenchman to thrive as the Timberwolves’ unquestioned interior lynchpin following the departure of Karl-Anthony Towns. Instead, Gobert’s production across the board has dipped from his stellar output over the previous two campaigns in Minnesota.
Through the season’s first seven games, the Stifle Tower is averaging a pedestrian 10.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks while shooting a career-low 60.9% from the field. For a player typically drafted in the early rounds, those numbers fall well short of justifying that lofty draft capital.
So, is it time to bail on the big man? Not so fast. A deeper look reveals that Gobert has been hampered by a nagging ankle injury over the past week, which has clearly sapped his otherworldly efficiency and rebounding prowess. Prior to that, he averaged a robust 12.3 boards and 1.7 swats over his first three appearances, right in line with his established norms.
The prudent approach for Gobert managers is to remain patient and trust the lengthy track record of the four-time Defensive Player of the Year. Once he regains his health, the Stifle Tower should return to stuffing box scores on a nightly basis.
Anfernee Simons’ Sluggish Start
Another fantasy darling drawing early consternation is Portland’s electric combo guard Anfernee Simons. Fresh off a scintillating 2023-24 campaign in which he averaged 22.6 points per game, Simons was a popular breakout pick entering this season. However, through eight games, his scoring average has dipped to 19.5 PPG, leaving managers wondering if they drastically overestimated his upside.
Again, a deeper dive suggests pumping the brakes on any panic moves. A key factor in Simons’ depressed numbers has been a slew of lopsided contests. Of Portland’s eight games, five have resulted in blowouts. In the three competitive affairs, Simons has looked every bit the part of a dynamic scorer:
- 23.0 PPG in “close” games decided by single digits
- Scored 20+ points in all 3 such contests
The Blazers project to be among the NBA’s worst teams, so some blowouts are to be expected. Still, the 25-year-old has proven he can get buckets in bunches even amid the rubble of a rebuilding franchise. Case in point: he averaged a cool 22.9 PPG for a 21-win Portland outfit just last season. If he can stay healthy, consistent scoring output in the low-to-mid 20s should remain well within reach.
Worrisome Rookies or Delayed Gratification?
Perhaps the most disheartening trend of this young season has been the milk carton disappearance of the widely hyped 2024 rookie class. To call their collective start inauspicious would be an understatement:
- Top pick Zaccharie Risacher has struggled to assert himself
- Preseason Rookie of the Year favorites like Reed Sheppard and Stephon Castle can’t even crack their teams’ rotations
- Only two rookies are averaging double-figure points, topped by Zach Edey’s measly 11.1 PPG
As bleak as that sounds, it’s critical not to lose sight of the bigger picture. The reality is that not every dazzling college or overseas star is ready to excel from day one in the NBA. Adjusting to the speed, strength, and skill of the world’s top league takes time. For every Victor Wembanyama who hits the hardwood running, there are countless rookies who need a few months (or even a full season) to find their footing.
“Depending on your league format, you may not have the luxury to carry players that aren’t capable of producing on a regular basis. My sense is that the rookies will improve as the season progresses…”
– André Snellings, ESPN Fantasy Basketball Analyst
For managers in shallower re-draft formats, it’s perfectly defensible to cut bait on underperforming rookies in favor of established veterans with bankable roles. Those with deeper benches or keeper/dynasty slots would be wise to stash the highest-upside first-year players in hopes of a value spike as the season unfolds and their respective roles expand.
The Verdict: Strategic Patience > Reactive Panic
As tempting as it may be to rage-drop early-season duds, the overarching advice in most cases is to stay the course. For proven commodities with established track records like Gobert and Simons, a patient approach is almost always preferable to overreacting to small sample sizes. Their statistical profiles and undeniable talent should eventually win out.
The calculus with rookies is a bit more complex and context-dependent. In many cases, the precocious first-year players poised to make the biggest fantasy splashes may not fully emerge until the second half of the season. Stashing the highest-pedigree prospects with the clearest paths to sizeable roles remains a worthy upside play for those who can afford to wait on realizing that value.
The key is to remain flexible and strategic in your approach. Making a shrewd two-for-one trade to free up a roster spot for a promising rookie stash, for instance, can help bridge the gap between the present needs and future upside of a fantasy roster. Like so much in fantasy hoops, it’s all about striking the right balance.
