Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney is set to deliver a stern warning to opposition parties as the Scottish government’s budget hangs in the balance. In a keynote speech in Edinburgh on Monday, Swinney will caution that failing to pass the budget could fuel disillusionment and populist forces in the country.
“We do not have to look far beyond Scotland’s shores to see what happens when politicians and political parties pursue stalemates instead of progress and delivery,” Swinney is expected to say. “It feeds cynicism and disillusion.”
“If people do not see Scotland’s parliament delivering progress for Scotland’s people – if instead it embarks down a path of political posturing and intransigence – then we run a real risk of feeding the forces of anti-politics and of populism.”
– John Swinney, First Minister of Scotland
SNP Runs Minority Government
Swinney’s Scottish National Party (SNP) currently holds 62 of the 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, three short of an outright majority. This minority position came about after Swinney’s predecessor, Humza Yousaf, ended a power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Green Party.
Despite the First Minister’s dire warnings, opposition parties have been quick to dismiss his concerns. They argue that the risk of the budget being blocked is minimal, pointing to the fact that the budget has been bolstered by a record £5.2 billion grant from the UK Treasury.
Opposition Calls Swinney’s Rhetoric “Overblown”
A senior Scottish Labour source accused Swinney of “creating a false narrative,” noting that with the Scottish Green Party and the Scottish Liberal Democrats pledging to abstain, the budget is all but guaranteed to pass. “Swinney is playing games,” the Labour source said. “His budget is already through; it’s irrelevant what everybody else does.”
Ross Greer, a Scottish Green Party member of the Scottish Parliament, echoed this sentiment, calling the First Minister’s rhetoric “hugely overblown.” Greer indicated that the Greens were satisfied with some of the spending priorities outlined in Swinney’s draft budget and had engaged in constructive discussions with SNP ministers.
Labour Leader to Deliver Rebuttal
Meanwhile, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is slated to deliver his own speech in Glasgow on Monday morning, directly challenging Swinney’s assertions. Sarwar is expected to argue that far from delivering progress, Scotland has stagnated under the SNP’s 17-year tenure in government.
“Politicians must stop making excuses and passing the buck – they must take responsibility.”
– Anas Sarwar, Leader of the Scottish Labour Party
Sarwar will likely point to what he sees as a sprawling “bureaucratic monster” of 131 government-funded organizations that cost taxpayers £6.6 billion per year. This speech is anticipated to be part of Labour’s attempt to reinvigorate its campaign to take control of the Scottish Parliament in the 2026 elections.
Treasury Windfall Boosts SNP Popularity
Ironically, it is the very budget that Swinney is warning could be derailed that has boosted the SNP’s standing with Scottish voters in recent weeks. The generous £5.2 billion allocation from the UK Treasury has enabled the SNP government to make crowd-pleasing promises, such as ending the two-child benefit cap and restoring universal winter fuel payments for pensioners.
As the new year dawns on the Scottish political landscape, all eyes will be on Holyrood to see if the opposition’s confidence about the budget’s prospects are well-founded, or if Swinney’s ominous predictions of a rising tide of populism and cynicism will come to pass. With the Scottish public watching closely, the pressure is on for all parties to find a way to work together and deliver the stability and progress that Scotland needs.
