Amid muted fanfare last week, FIFA officially awarded the 2034 World Cup hosting duties to Saudi Arabia, marking the pinnacle of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious plan to turn the Kingdom into a global soccer powerhouse. But just as the Saudis’ expensive sporting investments were supposed to be bearing fruit, gathering clouds on the economic and geopolitical horizon suggest that the 2034 dreams may prove unsustainable.
The Grand Vision Faces Harsh Realities
When MBS unveiled his Vision 2030 blueprint to wean Saudi Arabia off oil in 2016, soccer was a key pillar. The plan was crowned in early 2023 when the Saudi sovereign wealth fund bought a stable of domestic clubs and splurged close to $1 billion to lure global stars like Ronaldo to the Saudi Pro League. But the world looks very different now than it did then:
- Sparse attendance: Despite the imported star power, the Saudi Pro League is drawing paltry crowds of under 8,000 per match, on par with Peru’s league
- Broadcast apathy: Viewership in key Western markets has been abysmal, with the Saudi league making little impression on the global soccer consciousness
- Fiscal constraints: After the initial transfer binge, the cash spigots fueling the Saudi soccer spending spree appear to be tightening
The changing economic and geopolitical landscape has heightened doubts about the sustainability of the Saudi soccer project. Oil prices, while historically high, remain below the level the IMF says the Kingdom needs to balance its budgets. Fundamental shifts in energy supply and demand threaten to put long-term pressure on prices. And regional instability, highlighted by the fall of Syria’s Assad regime, has the Saudis fighting fires closer to home.
An All Too Familiar Script?
The Saudi soccer saga bears uncanny similarities to previous cautionary tales of leagues that flew too close to the sun. In both Japan in the 1990s and China in the 2010s, a mix of reckless spending, economic headwinds, and dubious sustainability brought promising soccer booms to a crashing halt.
However, Saudi Arabia’s soccer ambitions are uniquely tied to the Crown Prince’s governing legitimacy in a way that wasn’t true for Japan or China. With projects like the $500 billion NEOM city already being scaled back amid delays and cost overruns, the Saudi Pro League may simply be too big to fail.
The Saudi Pro League could very well be too big and important to bin Salman’s plans for his country to fail. But how long can the poorly attended party last?
Running Out of Time?
With a decade still to go until 2034, the Saudis do have runway to course correct. But several interlinked trends are working against them:
- Oil market softness: Structural changes in supply and demand could weigh on the oil revenues needed to sustain the Saudi soccer spending
- Construction cost overruns: Like NEOM, the infrastructure blitz required for 2034 looks increasingly at risk of delays and budget blowouts
- Shifting global capital flows: Rising interest rates are upending the low-yield environment that favored speculative investment in emerging markets like Saudi Arabia
In the end, Vision 2030 aimed to break the Kingdom’s reliance on the same oil revenues that are now needed more than ever to prop up the Saudi soccer project. It’s the definition of a petro-dollar paradox. And it leaves the 2034 World Cup dreams, once unassailable, suddenly looking as shaky as the empty stands at a midweek Saudi Pro League match.
