In the wake of the tragic Azerbaijan Airlines crash that claimed 38 lives on Christmas Day, Russian and Kazakh officials are urging restraint in speculating about the cause of the fatal incident. As investigators comb through the wreckage near the western Kazakh city of Aktau, searching for clues, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that it would be “wrong” to jump to conclusions before the inquiry concludes.
Calls for Caution Amidst Ukrainian Allegations
The measured response from Moscow and Astana comes on the heels of a bold claim by Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council’s Center for Countering Disinformation. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Kovalenko alleged that the Embraer 190 aircraft, en route from Baku to Grozny, was “shot down by a Russian air defence system,” citing video evidence of punctured life vests inside the plane.
This explosive accusation was echoed by four unnamed Azerbaijani sources with knowledge of the investigation, who spoke to Reuters. However, Kazakh Senate Chair Ashimbayev Maulen pushed back against what he called “unfounded” and “unethical” allegations, stressing that the cause remains unknown.
Speculation Swirls as Evidence Emerges
Despite the cautious official stance, speculation is rife in Russian media circles that the plane may have been mistakenly shot down by Russian air defenses, which were on high alert due to recent Ukrainian drone attacks in the region. The Fighterbomber Telegram channel, believed to be run by a Russian army captain, shared footage of the plane’s wreckage riddled with holes, fueling theories of shrapnel damage from an explosion.
Adding to the intrigue, FlightRadar24 reported that the ill-fated aircraft experienced “strong GPS jamming” shortly before the crash, causing it to transmit erroneous flight data. Russia has previously been accused of employing GPS jamming technology to defend against drone incursions in the wider region.
“Everything points to [an anti-aircraft missile system],” popular Russian pro-war blogger Yuri Podolyaka wrote, noting the telltale signs of damage on the plane’s wreckage.
Investigation Underway as Nations Mourn
As Azerbaijan observes a nationwide moment of silence for the victims and Kazakhstan works to identify the deceased, the search for answers continues. Azerbaijan’s prosecutor general has launched a criminal investigation, dispatching a high-level delegation to the crash site in Aktau to conduct an on-site inquiry.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s main transport prosecutor revealed that the crucial black box flight recorder has been recovered, offering a glimmer of hope in unraveling the mystery behind this devastating tragedy. Of the 29 survivors, 11 remain in intensive care, while Russia has evacuated nine of its nationals, including a child, for treatment in Moscow.
As the investigation unfolds and the crypto world watches with bated breath, one thing is certain: the truth behind the Azerbaijan Airlines crash remains elusive, shrouded in a web of geopolitical tensions and conflicting narratives. Only time, and a thorough, impartial inquiry, will tell if this tragedy was a case of catastrophic misfortune or something more sinister at play on the global stage.
