In a hard-fought and closely watched race that came down to the wire, Republican challenger Dave McCormick has emerged victorious over Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Casey in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. The Associated Press called the race for McCormick on Thursday afternoon, two days after the polls closed, with the Republican leading by a razor-thin margin of 0.4 points, or roughly 30,000 votes out of over 6 million cast.
The outcome marks a significant win for Republicans, who have now secured at least 53 seats in the Senate, wresting control of the chamber from Democrats. It also deals a blow to Casey, a well-known political name in Pennsylvania who was seeking a fourth term in office. The race was among the most expensive Senate contests in the country, with the campaigns and their allies pouring over $300 million into advertising.
A Contentious and Costly Battle
From the start, the Pennsylvania Senate race shaped up to be a fierce and contentious battle. McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, sought to paint Casey as out of touch and tied him to the “reckless spending” of the Biden administration. Casey, in turn, attacked McCormick as a wealthy carpetbagger “bought and paid for by billionaires and corporations.”
The barbed attacks flew at their sole debate last month, where Casey mocked his opponent’s recent residency in Connecticut, saying: “When you don’t have a record to run on, which Mr. McCormick does not, you attack your opponent.” McCormick fired back, arguing that Casey was trying to distract from his lack of accomplishments in the Senate.
The deluge of negative advertising reflected the high stakes of the race, with both sides viewing Pennsylvania as critical for controlling the Senate. One pro-McCormick super PAC alone, Honor Pennsylvania, reported spending over $54 million to boost his candidacy – the most of any single-candidate PAC in any Senate race this cycle.
Trump’s Influence Looms Large
The Senate contest in Pennsylvania was also seen as a key test of former President Donald Trump’s ongoing influence in the Republican Party. Trump endorsed McCormick and campaigned with him in the state, seeking to tie Casey to President Joe Biden, who has seen his approval ratings sag.
While Trump narrowly lost Pennsylvania in 2020, after winning it in 2016, his brand of populist conservatism still resonates with many in the state. McCormick, a West Point graduate and Army veteran, embraced Trump’s “America First” rhetoric on issues like immigration and trade.
Yet McCormick also faced skepticism from some in the GOP base over his ties to the establishment wing of the party. He had to fend off a late primary challenge from the right before securing the nomination. Bridging those divides while still appealing to swing voters proved a tricky balancing act.
A Recount on the Horizon?
With such a narrow margin separating the candidates, the specter of a recount looms over the Pennsylvania results. State law mandates an automatic recount if the margin is 0.5% or less, but allows for a requested recount with a margin up to 1%.
As of Thursday evening, Casey had yet to concede the race or comment on the prospect of a recount. His campaign noted that some absentee and provisional ballots were still being tabulated in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia.
However, most analysts believe McCormick’s lead of roughly 30,000 votes will likely hold up, even if a recount proceeds. Overturning that margin would require a massive miscount or discrepancy, which experts view as highly unlikely absent clear evidence of irregularities.
Implications for 2024 and Beyond
For Republicans, flipping the Pennsylvania Senate seat represents a major prize, given the state’s perennial battleground status. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania was one of three “blue wall” states, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, that propelled Trump to victory in 2016 before swinging back to Biden in 2020.
GOP control of the Senate not only provides a check on the Biden administration’s agenda, but could prove pivotal if any Supreme Court vacancies arise in the coming years. It also delivers a psychological boost heading into the 2024 election cycle.
Democrats, meanwhile, will be left pondering how to regain their footing in a state that was once seen as reliably blue. While they held on to the governorship and a Senate seat in Michigan and Wisconsin, the loss in Pennsylvania stings.
Some in the party will likely point fingers at Biden’s lackluster approval ratings as a drag on down-ballot candidates like Casey. Others may argue that Democrats failed to offer a compelling economic message to counter Republican attacks on inflation and spending.
Regardless, the focus now shifts to 2024 and whether Biden will seek a second term or give way to a new standard-bearer. Trump has already announced his intention to run again, potentially setting up a rematch in the Keystone State that could once again determine control of the White House – and the nation’s direction for years to come.
