The launch of the Unrivaled 3-on-3 league has the basketball world buzzing, as many WNBA superstars prepare to vie for the inaugural championship over the next two months. With modified rules designed to encourage a fast-paced, playground style of play, it will be fascinating to see which teams thrive in this new format. By analyzing the talent on each of the six rosters, we can get a sense of the favorites heading into opening weekend.
Ranking Methodology
To evaluate the teams, I leveraged my WNBA player projections for the upcoming 2025 season. These are based on a blend of advanced metrics from the past three years, such as Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Player Efficiency Rating (PER), and Win Shares. By aggregating the individual projections, we can estimate each squad’s offensive and defensive ratings, as well as an expected win percentage. It’s an imperfect method given the new rules, but provides a reasonable starting point to assess the distribution of talent.
1. Lunar Owls – 60.4% projected win percentage
The Lunar Owls, co-founded by Napheesa Collier, project to be an absolute juggernaut on the defensive end. Their estimated defensive rating is over 4 points per 100 possessions better than any other team. In addition to reigning WNBA Defensive Player of the Year Collier, shot-blocking maven Shakira Austin anchors the paint. The perimeter is patrolled by a trio of above-average defenders in Skylar Diggins-Smith, Allisha Gray, and Courtney Williams. They may struggle to score at times, but should be extremely stingy.
Obviously, that starts with Collier, the WNBA’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2024. Thanks to high rates of blocks, steals and defensive rebounds, Austin has the second-best defensive projection for any player in the Unrivaled pool behind Collier.
2. Phantom – 54.0% projected win percentage
In contrast to the Lunar Owls, Phantom’s roster is stacked with offensive firepower. Led by dynamic point guard Sabrina Ionescu, who has natural chemistry with former Oregon teammate Satou Sabally, Phantom projects to have the most potent attack. Adding to that 1-2 punch is the interior dominance of Brittney Griner. The 6’9″ center is almost impossible to double in a 3-on-3 setting and led the WNBA in post-ups last season. Marina Mabrey, an elite floor spacer and secondary creator when healthy, provides punch off the bench. Defensively, Phantom will rely heavily on the tenacious on-ball pressure of Natasha Cloud.
3. Vinyl – 52.0% projected win percentage
Vinyl has an embarrassment of riches on the offensive end, with four players who averaged over 14 points per game in the WNBA last season – Arike Ogunbowale (22.2), Dearica Hamby (17.3), Rhyne Howard (17.3), and Aliyah Boston (14.0). The key for Coach Teresa Weatherspoon will be getting them to play cohesively rather than settling for “your turn, my turn” basketball. Jordin Canada’s playmaking and improved three-point shooting (33% in 2023) will be critical to keeping everyone involved and forcing the defense to stay honest. If they find that balance, Vinyl will be a load to stop.
4. Mist – 48.8% projected win percentage
Despite co-founder Breanna Stewart projecting as the single most impactful player in the league, Mist’s roster doesn’t grade out quite as well overall in my model. A major factor is their collective 28.5% three-point shooting in the WNBA last year, easily the worst of any Unrivaled team. But there are reasons for optimism. The Stewart, Jewell Loyd, and Courtney Vandersloot trio have years of experience playing together between Seattle and New York. Defensively, they can be suffocating, with All-Defensive stalwarts Stewart and DiJonai Carrington flying around. Don’t be shocked if they outperform these projections.
5. Laces – 43.0% projected win percentage
The Laces are built around the unique skills of point forward Alyssa Thomas, who finished 2nd in 2023 WNBA MVP voting. Her ability to grab a rebound, push in transition, and either finish or kick out to a bevy of shooters – Kayla McBride, Jackie Young, Tiffany Hayes – is tailor made for the open court. Stefanie Dolson provides a stable veteran presence in the post. On paper, their lack of a true rim protector is concerning from an analytics perspective. But Thomas’ defensive versatility may render that moot in a 3-on-3 setting where help rotations are harder to execute.
6. Rose – 41.8% projected win percentage
The Rose roster has elite individual talents, but an awkward fit in terms of skill sets and efficiency. Shot creators like Kahleah Copper, Chelsea Gray, and Angel Reese can get buckets in isolation, but none were above average in true shooting percentage last season. Reese’s record-setting offensive rebounding ability will be fascinating to watch translate to 3-on-3, where she will have more space to operate. Lexie Hull’s sharpshooting and the defensive prowess of Gray and Brittney Sykes provide a solid baseline. But they will need to mesh quickly to keep up with more naturally cohesive units.
Ultimately, this is just one way to look at Unrivaled’s inaugural season landscape. Once the games begin, schemes, chemistry, and the unpredictable nature of a new format will all shape how things actually play out. But if you’re looking to set some baseline expectations and identify potential frontrunners, this is a good place to start. The action tips off on Friday – let’s see which stars rise to the occasion!
- Key Storylines:
- How will WNBA MVPs Stewart and Jonquel Jones fare as team owners?
- Which teams will master the pace and space of 3-on-3 fastest?
- Can the Laces overcome a lack of traditional rim protection?
- Will Rose’s collection of iso scorers share the sugar?
- How much will Ionescu and Sabally’s built-in chemistry boost Phantom?
| Team | Offensive Rating Rank | Defensive Rating Rank | Projected Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Lunar Owls | 5 | 1 | 60.4% |
| 2. Phantom | 1 | 5 | 54.0% |
| 3. Vinyl | 3 | 3 | 52.0% |
| 4. Mist | 4 | 2 | 48.8% |
| 5. Laces | 2 | 4 | 43.0% |
| 6. Rose | 6 | 6 | 41.8% |
