In a stunning turn of events, David Crisafulli and the Liberal National Party have clinched a razor-thin majority in the 2024 Queensland state election. However, as the dust settles, it’s becoming clear that the real battle for Queensland’s future has only just begun.
A Premier with an Asterisk
Crisafulli’s victory comes with a caveat. Having run a “small target” campaign to protect their once-commanding lead in the polls, the LNP now finds itself with a mandate to implement tough-on-crime policies—but little else. As one political insider put it, “Crisafulli will be a premier with an asterisk next to his name.”
Internal Dissent Brewing
Less than three hours after the polls closed, cracks in the LNP’s unity were already beginning to show. Hard-right favorite Amanda Stoker broke ranks on election night, suggesting that nuclear power was something “we should look at”—a clear departure from the party line. With such a narrow majority, Crisafulli can ill afford any internal dissent.
“Stoker’s gaffe might have just written herself a one-way ticket to the backbench,” a senior LNP source confided.
A State Divided
Perhaps the most daunting challenge facing the new premier is the stark divide between Queensland’s progressive capital and its conservative regions. Brisbane voters largely rejected the LNP, spooked by a campaign that became consumed by the abortion rights debate. Meanwhile, regional Queensland remains a bastion of conservative support.
Governing a state so deeply divided will require a deft touch and a willingness to compromise—qualities that some fear may be in short supply within the LNP’s ranks.
The Polling Slide That Almost Was
It’s a victory that will likely be remembered more for what almost happened than for what did. Having enjoyed a seemingly unassailable 58-42 lead in the polls just weeks ago, the LNP watched its advantage evaporate in the face of a surprisingly energetic Labor campaign.
As one veteran political observer noted, “If the campaign had gone on another week, who knows what might have happened? The LNP’s polling slide showed no signs of slowing down.”
The Real Fight Begins
For David Crisafulli, winning the election may have been the easy part. Now, he must find a way to unite a deeply divided state, keep his own party in line, and deliver on the promises that got him elected—all with the slimmest of majorities.
It’s a tall order for any premier, let alone one whose mandate is so narrow. But as Crisafulli himself has said, “The real fight for Queensland’s future has only just begun.” How he chooses to wage that fight will likely define his premiership—and Queensland’s direction—for years to come.
