In a stunning last-minute development, Queensland Liberal National Party leader David Crisafulli has backtracked on his bold campaign promise to resign if crime victim numbers do not fall under an LNP government. The qualification, coming mere hours before polls open in a nail-bitingly close state election, has sent shockwaves through the political landscape.
Promise vs. Fine Print
Crisafulli’s original vow, made during the first leaders’ debate on October 4, was unequivocal:
I’m serious about it, and I’m not giving myself any wriggle room. It’s victim numbers. It’s not number of unique offences and what happens on a Wednesday, and how many young people repeat. It’s victim numbers.
– David Crisafulli, October 4 leaders’ debate
However, with less than 24 hours until voting begins, the opposition leader has now clarified that his pledge referred to per capita crime rates, rather than the raw number of victims.
This eleventh-hour addendum has drawn swift condemnation from Premier Steven Miles, who accused Crisafulli of “making an excuse for an increase in victims.”
Polls on a Knife-Edge
The timing of this backflip is particularly significant given the rapidly tightening polls in the lead-up to election day. What once looked like a potential LNP landslide has transformed into a neck-and-neck race, with the very real possibility of a hung parliament.
An election-eve Newspoll has the LNP leading 52.5 to 47.5, a far cry from the commanding leads enjoyed by the opposition earlier in the campaign. This has raised the specter of a minority government, with the balance of power potentially falling to minor parties like Katter’s Australian Party and the Greens.
Crisafulli’s Closing Pitch
In a telling shift, Crisafulli’s final message to voters has pivoted from triumph to caution. He warned that the choice was now between a majority LNP government and a minority Labor administration reliant on the crossbench – “a recipe for chaos,” in his words.
The LNP leader also categorically ruled out forming a minority government of his own, stating that if the party falls short of the 47 seats needed for outright control, it would not seek to govern.
Crime and Punishment
The focus on crime has been a cornerstone of the LNP’s campaign, with the opposition frequently citing raw numbers to push the narrative of a “crime crisis” under Labor. However, experts have long cautioned that per capita rates provide a more accurate picture, especially in a fast-growing state like Queensland.
Criminologists prefer to measure trends by using rates – relative to any increase or decrease in population – rather than raw numbers. Some had said Crisafulli’s promise there would be “fewer victims” would be difficult to meet, given consistent population growth in Queensland.
– According to analysts familiar with the matter
This nuance appears to have been lost in much of the campaign rhetoric, only to resurface at the most politically opportune moment for the LNP leader. Whether Queensland voters will accept this last-minute clarification or punish perceived weasel words remains to be seen.
The Final Countdown
As Queenslanders prepare to cast their ballots, the only certainty is uncertainty. Will Crisafulli’s campaign-defining promise and subsequent qualification prove a masterstroke or a millstone? Will Labor scrape through for a third term or will the LNP finally wrest back the reins of power? Or will Queensland wake up on Sunday to a splintered parliament and the horse-trading of a hung election?
One thing is for sure – with neither side giving an inch and everything still to play for, this Queensland election is going right down to the wire. The voters, as always, will have the final say.
