The 2024 Queensland state election has delivered a decisive yet divided result, with the Liberal National Party (LNP) led by David Crisafulli securing a narrow majority but facing the challenge of governing a state politically split between its regional heartland and the progressive capital of Brisbane. The outcome sets the stage for a transformative term that could reshape Queensland politics for years to come.
A Tale of Two Electorates
The contrasting results in the electorates of Mackay and Mansfield tell the story of this election. Mackay, a traditional Labor stronghold in the regions, fell to the LNP after backing the ALP in the “Adani election” of 2017 amidst Queensland’s climate policy battles. Meanwhile, voters in the Brisbane suburb of Mansfield stuck with Labor, rejecting the LNP as they did in 2015 when Campbell Newman’s one-term government was thrown out of office.
This urban-rural divide, mirroring trends seen in the United States, presents Crisafulli with his greatest test. As one political analyst noted:
“Queensland is often called Australia’s most conservative state, but Brisbane is undoubtedly a modern, progressive city. Crisafulli’s challenge is to bridge that gap and deliver for both constituencies.”
The Path to Power
The LNP’s path to victory ran through regional centers like Townsville, Rockhampton, Maryborough, and the Sunshine Coast. However, the tide turned as they approached Brisbane, with the party’s vote stalling in the inner city and Labor holding off challenges from the Greens.
Analysts suggest several factors contributed to Labor’s resilience in the capital:
- Voter concerns over the hard-right social views of some LNP candidates
- The campaign’s focus on abortion rights in the final weeks
- Labor’s popular policy of 50c public transport fares
Governing from the Center
To maintain his grip on power, Premier Crisafulli must now demonstrate to Brisbane voters that the LNP can deliver the moderate, stable government they expected when Campbell Newman swept to power in 2012. This will require deft political maneuvering on several fronts:
- Resisting pressure to reignite culture wars over issues like abortion and transgender rights
- Moderating the push by some in his party to reconsider nuclear power
- Carefully managing the government’s approach to Indigenous treaties to avoid alienating progressive urban voters
One senior LNP figure, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged the tightrope Crisafulli must walk:
“We’ve won this election, but the real battle is just beginning. David knows he has to govern for all Queenslanders, not just our base. That means some tough conversations with colleagues who may want to drag us back to the right.”
Impact on Federal Politics
The repercussions of the LNP’s Queensland victory will also be felt in Canberra. For the federal Coalition, it provides a potential blueprint for regaining ground in other states by consolidating their hold on regional seats while stemming losses in the capitals. However, the result also highlights the risk of a widening urban-rural divide that could make it harder to assemble a winning national coalition.
Federal Labor, meanwhile, will be closely studying the Queensland playbook. Key policies like slashed public transport fares and embracing progressive social reforms could offer a path to shoring up support in other cities even as they lose ground in resource-dependent regions.
A Warning for the Greens
For Queensland’s Greens, election night brought a shocking result – the very real possibility of losing both their seats in Parliament. While some commentators rushed to interpret this as a backlash against the party’s perceived shift to the left under federal leader Adam Bandt, local factors may have played a bigger role.
In the seat of Maiwar, Greens MP Michael Berkman faced a unique challenge in an electorate that bridges Brisbane’s inner-city progressive heartland and its more conservative western suburbs. The absence of a “climate election” dynamic as seen in previous state campaigns may also have dampened the Greens’ appeal.
Yet even where the Greens lost ground in Brisbane, it was not always the LNP that benefited. In seats like Cooper, McConnel and South Brisbane, Labor triumphed by presenting itself as the most effective progressive choice, adopting many Greens policies like support for treaty and free school meals that proved popular with voters.
As one Greens strategist lamented:
“We’ve succeeded in shifting the agenda to the left, but we may have made ourselves redundant in the process. Why back the Greens when you can get much of the same policy from Labor, who can actually win government?”
A New Queensland Paradox
In the end, the 2024 Queensland election has delivered a paradoxical result – an LNP government with a mandate to deliver economic opportunity to the regions, but beholden to an increasingly progressive capital city that it must win over to survive.
For Premier Crisafulli, the challenge is now to find a new center in Queensland politics, one that balances the demands of Mackay and Mansfield, of miners and baristas, of towns dependent on coal and a city increasingly powered by renewables.
In a state long known for its political volatility, the next four years will determine whether the LNP can build a new, lasting coalition – or find itself once again consigned to Opposition, a victim of Queensland’s enduring contradictions. The future of the Sunshine State hangs in the balance.
