The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves through the Kremlin, exposing the fragility of Vladimir Putin’s carefully crafted image as a master of geopolitical chess. For years, Putin has sought to project an aura of invincibility, using perception management to paint Russia as a resurgent global power. But as Assad’s government crumbles, so too does the facade of Putin’s unassailable influence.
A Blow to Russia’s Middle East Ambitions
Russia’s military intervention in Syria, launched in 2015, was a key pillar of Putin’s strategy to reassert Moscow’s clout on the world stage. By propping up Assad’s brutal dictatorship, Putin aimed to secure a permanent foothold in the Middle East and challenge the West’s influence in the region. But with Assad’s fall, Russia’s costly gambit has ended in humiliating defeat.
Backlash from Russian Military Bloggers
The unraveling of Russia’s Syrian campaign has triggered a rare wave of public criticism from influential Russian nationalist military bloggers. These online commentators, who boast millions of followers, have lambasted the Kremlin for squandering Russian lives and resources on a failed adventure. As one blogger fulminated:
Ten years of our presence, dead Russian soldiers, billions of spent roubles and thousands of tonnes of ammunition, they must be compensated somehow.
– “Two Majors” Telegram channel
The scathing condemnation from usually loyal pro-Kremlin voices underscores the depth of anger and disillusionment over Putin’s Syrian debacle. It also hints at widening cracks in the edifice of Putin’s domestic support.
Economic Discontent Simmers
Alongside the military grumblings, Russian business leaders are also voicing complaints about the unsustainable costs of Putin’s foreign adventures. Sanctions imposed by Western powers in response to Russia’s aggression have taken a heavy toll on the Russian economy. Despite the Kremlin’s blustering claims of resilience, ordinary Russians are feeling the pinch of soaring inflation and stagnant wages.
The much-touted economic alliance between Russia and China is also showing signs of strain. Russian businesses report that Chinese banks are increasingly wary of dealing with sanctioned Russian entities, leaving them reliant on murky workarounds to keep money flowing. The unequal power dynamic between the two countries is becoming harder to ignore.
Time for the West to Turn Up the Heat
As cracks appear in Putin’s carefully constructed facade, Western powers have a golden opportunity to ratchet up the pressure on the Kremlin. By hitting Russia with secondary sanctions, targeting entities that continue to trade with Moscow, the West can further constrict Putin’s economic lifelines. Supporting pro-democracy protesters in places like Georgia can also help roll back Russia’s malign influence in its “near abroad.”
The goal is not to trigger an abrupt regime change in Russia, but rather to make the costs of Putin’s aggressive foreign policy prohibitively high. If the Russian leader feels his grip on power starting to slip, he may be forced to recalculate his ambitions and seek a face-saving exit from his disastrous interventions.
Putin’s House of Cards
For too long, the West has been cowed by Putin’s bluster and bravado, mistaking his Potemkin displays of strength for unassailable power. But the unraveling of Russia’s Syrian gambit has exposed the reality behind the curtain: a brittle, overstretched regime that is increasingly out of step with the desires of its own people.
As the costs of Putin’s foreign adventures mount, from the battlefields of Ukraine to the ruins of Syria, the Russian leader’s hold on power is looking more tenuous than ever. The West must seize this moment of vulnerability to increase the pressure on Moscow and hasten the collapse of Putin’s house of cards. The alternative is to allow a wounded, humiliated Russia to lash out in ever more destructive ways as it seeks to salvage its delusions of grandeur.
The fall of Assad is a stark reminder that even the most fearsome-looking tyrants can crumble with astonishing speed once their aura of invincibility is punctured. Putin may believe he can weather this latest setback through his tried-and-tested tactics of disinformation and misdirection. But the cracks in his regime are widening by the day. It is up to the West to pry them open further and consign Putin’s revanchist fantasies to the dustbin of history.
