As another Premier League weekend unfolds, a familiar cry echoes through stadiums across England. With their team pinned back and defenders scrambling, home fans rise in unison, imploring their midfielder to have a go from distance. “SHOOT!” they scream, hoping for a moment of magic. But more often than not, the ball sails high into the stands, gifting possession straight back to the opposition.
The Long Range Shot Debate
In an era where data analytics is meant to rule, many Premier League teams and players are still falling victim to the allure of the long-range wonder goal. Through the first 11 games this season, a staggering 372 shots have been attempted from outside the box in open play. Only 104 have hit the target, with 134 missing the goal completely. A further 134 were blocked by desperate defenders. From all those speculative efforts, a meager 27 have found the back of the net.
Some blame old-school fan culture, with supporters demanding their players “have a dig” whenever they get a sight of goal. Others point to certain players’ inflated egos and desire to make the highlight reels. But regardless of the reason, the reality is clear – shooting from distance is often a low-percentage play that gives up valuable possession.
A Changing Approach
Interestingly, the overall trend across the Premier League is that teams are gradually taking fewer long shots each season. Whether influenced by data analysis or a broader tactical shift, the average distance from goal for shot attempts has dropped from 17 meters in 2016 to just 15.5 meters last campaign.
This makes sense when you consider the numbers. So far this season, 14.7% of shots from open play inside the box have resulted in goals. For shots outside the area, that conversion rate plummets to a dismal 7.2%. Clearly, focusing attacks closer to goal provides a much better chance of success.
The Worst Offenders
So which teams are still letting fly from range too often? Nottingham Forest top the list, attempting a league-high percentage of their shots (47%) from outside the penalty area. Despite having one of the division’s best defensive records, Steve Cooper’s men are squandering a lot of good attacking positions by settling for potshots.
Surprisingly, reigning champions Manchester City are not far behind. Starved of the creative talents of Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri through injury, Pep Guardiola’s usually precise attack has resorted to a far higher proportion of long-range efforts than we’re used to seeing. It’s a big reason why they currently sit five points adrift of leaders Arsenal.
At the other end of the scale are analytics-driven Brentford. The Bees place a huge focus on shot quality, consistently working the ball into high-probability scoring positions. The result? They boast comfortably the highest expected goals (xG) per shot ratio in the Premier League at 0.15.
The Repeat Shot Offenders
In terms of individual culprits, Chelsea’s Noni Madueke is a standout. The young winger has attempted 28 shots from open play, with a pitiful combined xG value of just 2.09. Rather than picking his moments, Madueke seems intent on letting fly from all angles, demonstrated by his scattergun shot map.
Other players frequently taking low-quality shots include West Ham duo Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus, while Crystal Palace’s Eddie Nketiah has offered little end product for his speculative efforts. Manchester City flair player Phil Foden is also a surprising inclusion, failing to hit the target with any of his 14 long-range strikes after massively outperforming xG last term.
But when it comes to sheer volume of attempts from the “shoot” zone – that central area between 25-35 yards out – two familiar faces lead the way. Aston Villa’s Ross Barkley and Manchester United talisman Bruno Fernandes have each launched 19 pot shots from this region since the start of last season, far more than any other Premier League player.
A source close to Manchester United told us: “Bruno has always backed his shooting ability, but the coaches are working with him to pick his moments better and retain possession”
There are some signs that the penny may finally be dropping for these two repeat offenders. Barkley’s minutes have been limited this season as he adjusts to a more team-focused approach. Meanwhile, Fernandes is taking shots from a shorter average distance than any of his previous Premier League campaigns. With maturity, perhaps their decision-making will improve.
The Scourge of the Speculative Shot
The scourge of the speculative shot remains alive and well in the Premier League, even as data analysis promotes a more patient approach. Driven by adrenaline, ego and a baying crowd, many teams and players are still falling victim to football’s equivalent of basketball’s mid-range jumper – a low-efficiency play that often amounts to little more than wasted possession.
As defenses become tighter and more organized than ever, will we eventually see the long-range success ratio decline to a point where even the most stubborn shooters are forced to rein it in? Or will the lure of a viral goals compilation strike remain too strong? One thing’s for sure – as long as fans continue to scream “shoot”, Premier League footballers will be enticed to try their luck, analytics be damned.
Some blame old-school fan culture, with supporters demanding their players “have a dig” whenever they get a sight of goal. Others point to certain players’ inflated egos and desire to make the highlight reels. But regardless of the reason, the reality is clear – shooting from distance is often a low-percentage play that gives up valuable possession.
A Changing Approach
Interestingly, the overall trend across the Premier League is that teams are gradually taking fewer long shots each season. Whether influenced by data analysis or a broader tactical shift, the average distance from goal for shot attempts has dropped from 17 meters in 2016 to just 15.5 meters last campaign.
This makes sense when you consider the numbers. So far this season, 14.7% of shots from open play inside the box have resulted in goals. For shots outside the area, that conversion rate plummets to a dismal 7.2%. Clearly, focusing attacks closer to goal provides a much better chance of success.
The Worst Offenders
So which teams are still letting fly from range too often? Nottingham Forest top the list, attempting a league-high percentage of their shots (47%) from outside the penalty area. Despite having one of the division’s best defensive records, Steve Cooper’s men are squandering a lot of good attacking positions by settling for potshots.
Surprisingly, reigning champions Manchester City are not far behind. Starved of the creative talents of Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri through injury, Pep Guardiola’s usually precise attack has resorted to a far higher proportion of long-range efforts than we’re used to seeing. It’s a big reason why they currently sit five points adrift of leaders Arsenal.
At the other end of the scale are analytics-driven Brentford. The Bees place a huge focus on shot quality, consistently working the ball into high-probability scoring positions. The result? They boast comfortably the highest expected goals (xG) per shot ratio in the Premier League at 0.15.
The Repeat Shot Offenders
In terms of individual culprits, Chelsea’s Noni Madueke is a standout. The young winger has attempted 28 shots from open play, with a pitiful combined xG value of just 2.09. Rather than picking his moments, Madueke seems intent on letting fly from all angles, demonstrated by his scattergun shot map.
Other players frequently taking low-quality shots include West Ham duo Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus, while Crystal Palace’s Eddie Nketiah has offered little end product for his speculative efforts. Manchester City flair player Phil Foden is also a surprising inclusion, failing to hit the target with any of his 14 long-range strikes after massively outperforming xG last term.
But when it comes to sheer volume of attempts from the “shoot” zone – that central area between 25-35 yards out – two familiar faces lead the way. Aston Villa’s Ross Barkley and Manchester United talisman Bruno Fernandes have each launched 19 pot shots from this region since the start of last season, far more than any other Premier League player.
A source close to Manchester United told us: “Bruno has always backed his shooting ability, but the coaches are working with him to pick his moments better and retain possession”
There are some signs that the penny may finally be dropping for these two repeat offenders. Barkley’s minutes have been limited this season as he adjusts to a more team-focused approach. Meanwhile, Fernandes is taking shots from a shorter average distance than any of his previous Premier League campaigns. With maturity, perhaps their decision-making will improve.
The Scourge of the Speculative Shot
The scourge of the speculative shot remains alive and well in the Premier League, even as data analysis promotes a more patient approach. Driven by adrenaline, ego and a baying crowd, many teams and players are still falling victim to football’s equivalent of basketball’s mid-range jumper – a low-efficiency play that often amounts to little more than wasted possession.
As defenses become tighter and more organized than ever, will we eventually see the long-range success ratio decline to a point where even the most stubborn shooters are forced to rein it in? Or will the lure of a viral goals compilation strike remain too strong? One thing’s for sure – as long as fans continue to scream “shoot”, Premier League footballers will be enticed to try their luck, analytics be damned.
