In the aftermath of the intensely contested U.S. presidential election, many wondered if crypto-based prediction market Polymarket could maintain its momentum. With the ballots counted and a winner declared, would traders stick around or move on to the next big event? A month later, data indicates Polymarket has retained a loyal user base that extends beyond election bettors.
Polymarket’s Post-Election Performance
According to analytics from research firm Animoca, around 75% of Polymarket’s users trade contracts unrelated to the election. This significant non-election user base provided a solid foundation for the platform to build upon after the election hoopla died down. Key metrics support this assessment:
Steady Open Interest
Open interest, which measures the total value of active positions, reflects Polymarket’s liquidity and overall market engagement. While it peaked at $475 million on Election Day and declined in the immediate aftermath, open interest has been climbing back up in recent weeks:
- Bottomed at $93.9M on Nov. 12
- Rose to $104M by Nov. 15
- Reached $115.25M on Nov. 30
These figures are on par with Polymarket’s mid-September levels, when election fever was ramping up. The recovery indicates sustained interest beyond the election.
Healthy Trading Volumes
Daily trading volumes have also stabilized after the post-election drop-off. While down from the $367 million peak the day after the election, volumes have plateaued in the mid to high eight-figure range – still higher than September levels. This suggests ongoing engagement from Polymarket’s trader base.
Active Wallets Hold Steady
The number of active wallets on Polymarket, which reflects the number of traders using the platform, has hovered around 35,000 in the past week. This is only slightly lower than the 39,100 average seen in the week leading up to the election, indicating most users have stuck around.
Notably, Polymarket does not seem overly reliant on whales to drive activity. Data shows around 60% of bets are under $100, while only 5.8% fall in the $1,000 to $5,000 range. This points to a diverse user base rather than a few big spenders propping up volumes.
Influencer Controversy and Surprises
Even as the numbers look promising, Polymarket has weathered some controversy. Social media influencer Antonio Brown apologized for tweeting an insult aimed at Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan. Brown admitted he sent the tweet, which used a racial slur, at the behest of competing prediction market Kalshi, with whom he was doing other business.
In another unexpected development, Polymarket bettors were caught off guard by President Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter, who is under investigation for tax and gun offenses. When the White House announced the pardon on Nov. 29, shares representing a pardon jumped from around 30 cents to $1, netting a bettor named “PollsR4Dummies” over $223,000 on an $87,740 stake.
A White House source insisted the president’s change of heart was unrelated to recent media leaks suggesting additional indictments may be looming for the younger Biden. The source maintained President Biden was upholding a promise to respect the judicial process, not short-circuiting it.
White House Official (Anonymous)
Despite these curveballs, Polymarket’s post-election performance has proven resilient. With a devoted user base, differentiated market offerings, and provocative headline fodder, the platform appears well-positioned to thrive in the political off-season.
However, legal and regulatory challenges still loom on the horizon. Polymarket is reportedly working to resolve compliance issues that could threaten its long-term viability. If the incoming administration adopts a more crypto-friendly stance as some expect, it could provide a clearer path forward.
For now, though, Polymarket seems to have defied the doomsayers, leveraging its election-season gains into a credible claim as a major player in the prediction market arena. In a space defined by uncertainty, that’s an impressive feat indeed.
