The fate of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has become the hottest bet on decentralized prediction market Polymarket, with surging volume on contracts speculating on the exact timing of his increasingly likely resignation. As scoops from two of Canada’s largest newspapers report his imminent departure, bettors are rushing to predict how quickly the embattled leader will bow out.
Dueling Reports Fuel Resignation Speculation
The frenzy kicked off over the weekend as the Toronto Star and Globe and Mail, two of Canada’s most influential papers, released competing reports that Trudeau was on the verge of resigning after a bruising year saw his approval ratings crater to record lows. While the Star indicated he could step down as early as Monday, the Globe pegged the announcement as coming before Wednesday’s national Liberal party caucus meeting.
The conflicting timelines instantly ignited a flurry of betting action on Polymarket, with speculators wagering on which scoop would prove more prescient. Bettors are giving 80% odds Trudeau will be gone by Friday, but they’re more skeptical of the Star‘s aggressive Monday timeline, pricing the chances at a mere 24%.
Bets Against Swift Exit Gather Steam
A separate Polymarket contract positing a Wednesday resignation has attracted a more modest $10,000 in volume, but bettors there are assigning a 72% probability to that scenario playing out, a sign that sentiment is crystallizing around a slightly longer exit timeline than the Star predicts but still a rapid denouement to Trudeau’s premiership.
“Bettors are increasingly convinced it’s not a matter of if, but when Trudeau resigns. The Prime Minister’s political capital looks utterly exhausted.”
Polymarket trader and political pundit SatoshiCandide
Reuters has added to the uncertainty, reporting that one of their government sources believes Trudeau is still wavering on whether to resign at all. But bettors are clearly skeptical of any reprieve, as a longer-dated contract expiring in April prices an 88% chance the Prime Minister will be gone by then.
Staking Sats on Canada’s Political Future
With Trudeau’s approval mired at a dismal 22% and polls showing his Liberal party would lose as many as 183 seats if an election were held today, it appears bettors view his position as untenable. The prospect of an ignoble, imminent exit has stoked a speculative frenzy.
Will he stay or will he go? Odds are shifting by the hour as bettors on Polymarket race to predict the exact timing of Trudeau's seemingly inevitable resignation as Canada's Prime Minister. Political betting markets have never been hotter! 🇨🇦🔥 #Polymarket #Canada pic.twitter.com/e8TEsqG5f9
— SatoshiCandide (@SatoshiCandide) January 30, 2025
While the vast majority of the action has centered on forecasting the date of Trudeau’s departure, there has been some activity in more fanciful markets as well. One contract asking whether Canada will join the United States by July has attracted over $15,000 in volume, though the odds sit at a mere 3%.
Key Takeaways
- Bettors are increasingly convinced Trudeau will resign imminently amid approval rating collapse
- Timing predictions range from Monday to Wednesday based on competing media reports
- Over 80% chance seen of resignation by Friday, nearly 90% by April
- Frenzied betting underscores predictive power of crypto-powered markets
As one of the first major political betting events to unfold almost entirely on decentralized prediction markets, the Trudeau resignation saga highlights their growing power to harness the wisdom of crowds. By distilling the disparate, fast-shifting assessments of newsmakers, politicos, and the betting public into hard probability, Polymarket acts as a potent barometer for the political future.
With volume continuing to surge by the hour, all eyes in Canada and the crypto world will be watching to see not just whether bettors have correctly called Trudeau’s demise, but whether they’ve nailed the timing down to the day. One of the first scalps of the decentralized prediction market era may be imminent.
