In a stunning announcement that has rocked the world of political polling, J Ann Selzer, widely regarded as the “queen of polling” for her uncanny accuracy in predicting Iowa election outcomes, has declared that she is stepping back from public opinion research. The news comes on the heels of a jarring miss in Selzer’s final Iowa poll, which projected a strong lead for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump – a forecast that ultimately proved to be off by a whopping 16 points.
A Storied Career Cut Short
Selzer, who rose to prominence in 2008 when she correctly predicted the upset victory of then-Senator Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses, has long been considered a polling powerhouse. Her track record of precision has made her a go-to source for media outlets and political campaigns alike, eager to gain insight into the notoriously hard-to-predict Iowa electorate.
However, in a stunning reversal of fortune, Selzer’s final Iowa poll, released just days before the 2024 presidential election, projected a 47% to 44% lead for Harris over Trump. The survey, which pointed to a surge of support for the vice president among older women voters concerned about reproductive rights, gave Democrats hope for a decisive victory in the Hawkeye State.
A Resounding Trump Victory
When the votes were tallied, however, the reality proved to be far different. Trump not only carried Iowa, but did so by a resounding 13-point margin, 56% to 43%. The discrepancy between Selzer’s poll and the actual results sent shockwaves through the political world, prompting questions about the reliability of even the most trusted polling operations.
Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite.
J Ann Selzer, in a column for the Des Moines Register
A Humble Exit
In a column published in the Des Moines Register, Selzer acknowledged the gravity of the error, writing, “Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.” She went on to announce her decision to step back from polling, a move she had apparently been contemplating for the past year.
The Des Moines Register, which has long partnered with Selzer on the Iowa Poll, expressed its commitment to finding new ways to accurately gauge public opinion in the state. “The Iowa Poll has been an important legacy indicator,” wrote editor Carol Hunter, “and we recognize the need to evolve and find new ways to accurately take the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues.”
A Broader Polling Reckoning
Selzer’s stunning miss and subsequent departure have sparked a broader conversation about the state of political polling in an increasingly volatile and polarized electoral landscape. While most national polls correctly predicted a tight race, with a narrow popular vote advantage for Harris, few foresaw the scale of Trump’s electoral college victory, which saw him claim all seven swing states and expand his 2020 map.
Some analysts have pointed to a “shy Trump voter” effect, suggesting that a segment of the electorate, wary of expressing support for the controversial former president, may have eluded pollsters. Others have highlighted the challenges posed by declining response rates and the growing prevalence of cell phones, which have made traditional telephone polling more difficult and potentially less representative.
People looked at my methodology and said, It’s too simple, this can’t possibly work. And so far it has, but I’m prepared that one day it will not work and I will blow up into tiny little pieces and be scattered across the city of Des Moines.
J Ann Selzer, speaking to The Bulwark podcast prior to the election
An Uncertain Future
As the polling industry grapples with the fallout from the 2024 election, many are left wondering what the future holds. Will new methodologies emerge to better capture the mood of an electorate that seems increasingly skeptical of traditional polling? Will the role of public opinion research in our political discourse diminish in the face of high-profile misses like Selzer’s?
For now, the only certainty is that J Ann Selzer, a titan of the polling world, has chosen to exit the stage, leaving behind a legacy of unparalleled accuracy – and one final, humbling reminder of the inherent challenges of predicting the will of the people. As the nation looks ahead to the next electoral cycle, it does so with a newfound sense of uncertainty, and a recognition that even the most trusted voices in political prognostication are not infallible.
