As Poland looks ahead to a pivotal presidential election in May 2025, the stakes couldn’t be higher for the country’s political future. The outcome will determine whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition government can freely implement its agenda of progressive reforms after a first year marked by clashes with incumbent President Andrzej Duda and internal divisions.
A Referendum on Tusk’s Government
Tusk’s return to power last December, ousting the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party after eight years, sparked celebrations among progressive Poles and relief in Brussels. However, with Duda still wielding veto power until his term ends, the upcoming vote is effectively a referendum on the government’s ability to govern unimpeded.
We are still in an extended election cycle, and the presidential vote will be absolutely make or break for the government. Depending on the result, the government will be able to effectively govern and reform, or it won’t.
– According to a political analyst close to the situation
The Civic Coalition has selected Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, as its candidate following a primary contest. Trzaskowski narrowly lost to Duda in 2020 and is gearing up for another tight race. PiS, meanwhile, has chosen Karol Nawrocki, a former government history institute head, to succeed Duda.
Stalled Reforms and Internal Tensions
Tusk campaigned on an ambitious “100 tasks in 100 days” platform, positioning the election as Poland’s “last chance” to save its democracy. While his government made some bold initial moves, like unblocking EU funds and installing new public media leadership, progress has been limited by Duda’s veto threats and discord within the diverse coalition.
This legislative paralysis has been most glaring—and disheartening for progressives—on abortion rights, a crucial mobilizing issue for many Poles. Despite floating various bills, disagreements between the coalition’s left and conservative wings have impeded liberalization of Poland’s strict laws in the wake of PiS’s near-total ban.
People are really, really disappointed, especially in bigger cities… Their goal is to convince very conservative MPs to vote for this bill and they are willing to concede on almost everything.
– Natalia Broniarczyk, Abortion Dream Team activist
Shifting Focus to Security and Migration
While Tusk’s government has made some headway in areas like education reform, with curriculum updates and teacher pay raises, many see contentious social issues taking a back seat as the election nears. With war raging next door in Ukraine, Tusk has increasingly mirrored the hardening European stance on migration to avoid ceding ground to PiS.
Last month, he even called for suspending asylum rights on the Belarusian border, a key route into Europe—a sign of how migration policy may play an outsized role in the presidential campaign.
Nobody wants abortion to be the focus of the campaign; it will be on security and economy.
– Senator Tomasz Grodzki
A Crucial Juncture for Poland’s Future
As the Polish political landscape remains deeply polarized, both sides recognize the presidential election as a critical inflection point. For Tusk’s allies, a Trzaskowski victory and cooperative president would break the gridlock and empower them to enact their vision, finalizing what they see as a essential return to democracy.
It will be a crucial campaign for the future of Poland. We have to win if we want to finalise our return to democracy.
– Senator Grodzki
But even with defeat, PiS and its supporters aren’t likely to fade into the background. How Tusk and his coalition navigate this decisive contest and potential mandate—while balancing internal tensions, domestic headwinds, and geopolitical pressures—may well define Poland’s path forward on issues from rule of law to social reforms to relations with Brussels. As the campaign kicks into high gear, Europe will be watching closely.
