In the chaotic lead-up to the November election, a recent arrest in Oklahoma has thrust the Islamic State (ISIS) back into the spotlight. Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, a 27-year-old from Oklahoma City, confessed to FBI agents that he and an accomplice planned to open fire on crowds on election day, expecting to die as ISIS martyrs.
This disturbing plot comes amidst intensifying warnings from top officials about the resurgent terrorist group’s designs on the West. Attorney General Merrick Garland emphasized the “ongoing threat that [ISIS] and its supporters pose to America’s national security” in the wake of Tawhedi’s arrest. In the UK, MI5 chief Ken McCallum described managing the ISIS threat as “one hell of a job.”
Online Chatter Reveals ISIS Election Attack Plans
Despite a common public perception that ISIS has faded away, the group’s online presence tells a different story. On chat boards and encrypted apps, ISIS supporters and operatives are increasingly discussing attacks on Western targets, particularly in the US.
“You Are Next”: ISIS-K Sets Sights on US
Much of this online activity is being driven by ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), the Afghanistan-based branch behind deadly attacks in Russia and Iran in recent months. In a chilling propaganda poster released in September, ISIS-K depicted one of its militants holding a grenade in front of the US Capitol, with the caption “you are next.”
“[ISIS-K] has recently reiterated its intent to target the US… This is additionally concerning given the branch’s mass casualty attacks on Russia and Iran, leaving the United States as the remaining adversary on this shortlist for a successful external operation.”
– Lucas Webber, Tech Against Terrorism
Uptick in ISIS-Linked Arrests and Plots
Tawhedi’s case is just one example of a worrying trend. Other recent ISIS-related incidents in the US include:
- A Maryland man charged with attempting to buy an assault rifle to support ISIS
- A Tajik ISIS suspect arrested in Costa Rica
- The dismantling of a Central Asian ISIS network in New York, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia
- A Canada-based Pakistani national allegedly plotting an attack on a New York Jewish center
ISIS Recruitment Targets Western Youth
Since establishing a base in Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover, ISIS-K has focused on recruiting young men in the West who may struggle to travel overseas. Through encrypted communications, the group encourages followers to either carry out attacks at home or make “hijra” to ISIS-controlled territories.
“Discussions online are very diverse. However, there has been an increase in talks about either carrying out attacks or making hijra [migration] to tamkeen – lands where IS is present in force and controls.”
– Riccardo Valle, Khorasan Diary
On ISIS-linked forums, some users bemoaned Tawhedi’s arrest, speculating about how things could have been different with better coordination. Others advocated for targeting Jewish people with knives or using improvised weapons like “kitchen made bombs, commercial drones.”
Countering the Persistent ISIS Threat
While ISIS may no longer dominate headlines as it once did, counterterrorism experts stress that the group and its affiliates remain active in Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and beyond. Attacks like those in Russia and Iran, along with the recent US arrests, underscore the need for continued vigilance.
As the US braces for a contentious election, authorities are grappling with a multitude of threats, both foreign and domestic. The prospect of ISIS-inspired violence aimed at wreaking havoc on the democratic process adds another troubling layer to an already tense situation.
