As the NHL regular season enters its final months, the playoff picture is starting to crystallize – but for several teams, the battle for the postseason is only just heating up. With wild card spots still up for grabs and seeding to be determined, the league’s “bubble teams” find themselves under immense pressure to secure their ticket to the big dance. In this article, we dive deep into the playoff chances for each of these clubs, using advanced analytics to project how the intense final weeks may unfold.
The Playoff Probabilities Landscape
Before examining individual teams, it’s important to understand the methodology behind playoff probabilities. Stathletes, a leading hockey analytics firm, uses a robust model that simulates the remainder of the season thousands of times to arrive at each team’s odds. This model accounts for factors like a team’s current record, underlying metrics like goal differential and expected goals, strength of remaining schedule, and more. While no projection system is perfect, these probabilities provide a data-driven view into how the races may conclude.
Eastern Conference Bubble Teams
In the East, much of the playoff field looks set, with powerhouses like the Capitals, Hurricanes, and Maple Leafs virtual locks. But the wild card spots remain hotly contested. The Philadelphia Flyers currently occupy the second wild card, with Stathletes giving them a 54.3% chance of holding on. Under new head coach John Tortorella, the Flyers have played a rugged, defensively stout style – but questions remain about their scoring punch.
Right on Philly’s heels are the Pittsburgh Penguins, with a 25.1% probability. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin continue to defy Father Time with elite production, but shaky team defense and goaltending have held Pittsburgh back. They may need a trade deadline boost to put them over the top.
The Ottawa Senators, with 44.9% playoff odds, are the other major wild card threat. After years of rebuilding, the Sens’ young core looks ready to make noise, led by elite defenseman Zach Werenski. But do they have the depth and consistency to outlast their more experienced competition?
Western Conference Playoff Picture
Out West, the Central Division is an absolute gauntlet, with the Wild, Stars, and Jets all projected as near-locks. That leaves precious little room for bubble teams to break through. The defending champion Colorado Avalanche have an 85.3% chance per Stathletes, and with their championship core starting to get healthy, they look primed to nab a wild card spot – and maybe scare some contenders.
The Utah Hockey Club, in their inaugural season, have crashed the playoff party with a 73.6% probability. Building through smart drafting and savvy trades, they’re ahead of schedule – but have they peaked too early?
Finally, the St. Louis Blues are given just a 14.2% chance by the model. After a rough start, the Blues have played better under new bench boss Jim Montgomery, with some gutsy trade additions like Cam Fowler strengthening the roster. But barring an absolute tear in the final months, that early hole may just be too much to overcome in the shark tank that is the West.
The Stretch Run Awaits
As the numbers show, the NHL’s playoff bubble is ready to burst with intense competition over the final months. From savvy deadline deals to crucial winning streaks and untimely slumps, every game will be magnified in importance. Only one thing is certain: by mid-April, the postseason field will be set – and for these bubble teams, the fate of their season hangs in the balance. Buckle up, hockey fans. The homestretch is here.
