As the 2024 NFL regular season enters its final stretch, fans and analysts alike are eagerly anticipating the upcoming playoffs. With just three weeks left to play, ESPN has simulated the remaining 48 games to project the final standings, wild-card matchups, and even the Super Bowl LIX winner. The results offer a tantalizing glimpse into the postseason’s potential drama and surprises.
Seven Teams Clinch Playoff Berths, Seven Spots Remain
According to the simulation, seven teams have already secured their place in the postseason—three from the NFC and four from the AFC. This leaves seven playoff spots up for grabs, setting the stage for intense battles down the stretch. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ran 10,000 simulations, yielding a staggering 4,393 unique combinations of playoff teams and seeds.
While the possibilities are vast, the focus here is on the most likely scenario based on the FPI model. Although this specific combination of teams and seeds occurred in just 73 simulations (less than 1%), it represents the single most probable outcome. Individually, the projected AFC seeds have an 11% chance of occurring, while the NFC seeds have a 6% chance.
Projecting Week 16 Scores and Crucial Matchups
The simulation begins by projecting the scores for each Week 16 game. Among the most pivotal results is the Steelers’ 30-24 victory over the Ravens in their AFC North rivalry game. This win allows Pittsburgh to clinch the division title, while Baltimore settles for a wild-card berth. In the NFC, the Commanders complicate the Eagles’ path to the top seed with a 20-17 upset, a development that bodes well for the Lions, who strengthen their hold on the No. 1 spot with a win over the Bears.
Chiefs, Bills Battle for AFC’s Top Seed in Final Weeks
Heading into the final two weeks of the season, the Chiefs’ grasp on the AFC’s No. 1 seed is tenuous. In Week 17, they suffer a surprising loss to the Steelers while the Bills narrowly defeat the Jets. This pulls Buffalo within one game of Kansas City, with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. The stage is set for a dramatic final week, with the Chiefs needing a win over the Broncos and a Bills loss to secure the top spot and a first-round bye.
The simulation projects a nail-biting finish in Week 18, with the Chiefs holding off the Broncos 33-27 while the Bills handle their business against the Patriots. Kansas City claims the No. 1 seed by the slimmest of margins, thanks to a season full of improbable victories and last-second heroics.
Lions Dominate NFC, Buccaneers Extend Division Reign
In the NFC, the Lions cement their hold on the top seed with a decisive Week 18 win over the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers clinch the NFC South for the fourth consecutive year, riding a seven-game winning streak to close out the season. The Rams secure the NFC West title and the conference’s final playoff spot by defeating the Seahawks in a Week 18 showdown.
Projected AFC and NFC Playoff Fields
Based on the simulation, the final AFC playoff picture shakes out as follows:
- 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
- 2. Buffalo Bills (14-3)
- 3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5)
- 4. Houston Texans (10-7)
- 5. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
- 6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
- 7. Denver Broncos (10-7)
In the NFC, the projected playoff field looks like this:
- 1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
- 2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
- 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6)
- 4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
- 5. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
- 6. Green Bay Packers (12-5)
- 7. Washington Commanders (11-6)
Simulating the Playoffs: Bills, Lions Emerge Victorious
With the playoff field set, the simulation moves on to the postseason. In the wild-card round, the higher seeds largely hold serve, with one notable exception: the Ravens upset the Texans on the road, 27-24. The divisional round sees the Ravens pull off another shocker, defeating the Chiefs 27-7 at Arrowhead Stadium to deny Kansas City a shot at a three-peat.
In the conference championship games, Josh Allen leads the Bills past the Ravens 24-23 in a thrilling back-and-forth battle, while the Lions’ dominant defense stifles the Eagles en route to a 23-10 victory. This sets the stage for a compelling Super Bowl LIX matchup between two franchises seeking their first championship in decades.
Super Bowl LIX: Bills Claim Long-Awaited Title
In a rematch of their Week 15 clash, the Bills once again jump out to an early lead over the Lions. However, this time, Buffalo’s defense proves just as formidable as Detroit’s, stymieing the Lions’ attempts to mount a comeback. With Josh Allen’s dual-threat brilliance and a ball-hawking secondary leading the way, the Bills triumph 27-13 to secure the franchise’s first Super Bowl championship.
It’s a storybook ending for a team that’s endured so much heartbreak over the years. To finally see the Bills hoist the Lombardi Trophy, it’s a moment that will forever be etched in the minds of their dedicated fans.
– A source close to the Bills organization
While this simulation represents just one possible outcome among thousands, it offers a captivating glimpse into the excitement and unpredictability that awaits in the 2024 NFL playoffs. As the regular season winds down, fans will be eagerly tracking the results to see how closely they align with ESPN’s projections—and perhaps even holding out hope for a similarly thrilling conclusion to the postseason.
