The return of Donald Trump to the White House is sending shockwaves across the globe, catalyzing a flurry of repositioning and realignment as countries seek to navigate the long shadow of his transformative “America First” approach. Even before taking a single executive action, Trump’s mere presence in the Oval Office is forcing a reckoning with a radically reoriented United States.
A Revisionist Power Upends the Liberal Order
In a striking assessment, Princeton professor John Ikenberry argues that the U.S. itself has become the revisionist power contesting the liberal international order it once championed. Trump’s worldview challenges the very foundations of the post-war consensus – from free trade and multilateralism to democratic solidarity and human rights.
This ideological upheaval is forcing a global reappraisal of what America represents. The narrative, both at home and abroad, is that the United States is not what many assumed it to be. Trumpism, far from an aberration, has revealed something fundamental in the American story.
Three Emerging Responses
As the world grapples with this new reality, three distinct forms of response are taking shape:
- Ideological Alignment: Populist and nationalist forces, from Europe to Latin America, see an opportunity to ride the slipstream of America First.
- Geostrategic Rebalancing: Countries like China anticipate a leadership vacuum to fill as the U.S. retreats from its traditional role.
- Pragmatic Engagement: Key U.S. allies still hope to appeal to Trump’s self-interest through a mix of flattery and concession.
Europe at a Crossroads
For Europe, Trump’s stance on Ukraine presents an existential challenge. His transactional approach threatens to sideline European interests in the pursuit of a deal with Putin. This is forcing urgent debate on how the EU can assert greater strategic autonomy in the face of a less reliable American partner.
European leaders cannot simply shift the blame for their predicament to Washington.
– Norbert Röttgen, German CDU foreign affairs specialist
Recalibration in the Middle East
Leaders in the Middle East are carefully calibrating how Trump’s return will impact the region’s proliferating conflicts. Key questions loom: Will he vacate the area, allowing chaos to deepen and other actors to fill the void? Or will he pursue “big transformative deals” that rewrite the regional order?
For Israel, the stars may finally align for a long-sought strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But other regional powers like Saudi Arabia are hedging their bets, diversifying foreign relations to reduce dependence on the U.S.
China Eyes Opportunity
Facing tariff threats, China sees a potential silver lining in Trump’s willingness to treat allies as adversaries. President Xi is maneuvering to portray China as a stable, free-trading partner in contrast to the caprice of Trumpian diplomacy. If successful, this could accelerate a larger global rebalancing.
As the world enters uncharted waters, only one thing is certain: the age of Trump will be an age of upheaval, one where the old rules no longer apply and the new ones are yet to be written. In the prescient words of the president’s own aide: “People are genuinely afraid that if they don’t listen to him, bad things can happen.” The world is listening, closely, trying to divine what those “bad things” might be and how to navigate the perilous path ahead.
