As the 2024 NFL season rolls into Week 13, fans and pundits alike feel they have a firm grasp on the league’s realities. Super Bowl favorites have emerged, rebuilding teams have been identified, and new stars have burst onto the scene. But what if these assumed truths are actually fallacies? Our resident NFL mythbusters are here to shatter your preconceptions and reveal the hidden realities behind 10 of the season’s most prevalent narratives.
Myth #1: The Bears’ Offensive Line is to Blame for Their Struggles
While it’s tempting to pin Chicago’s offensive woes on their battered O-line, a deeper dive reveals that rookie quarterback Caleb Williams may be the real culprit. Despite leading the league in sacks allowed, the Bears rank a respectable 17th in pass block win rate. The issue? Williams’ tendency to hold onto the ball, inviting pressure through indecision rather than porous protection.
Myth #2: The Running Game is Making a Comeback
Early-season scoring droughts and a prevalence of two-high safety looks had many heralding the return of ground-and-pound football. However, the numbers tell a different story. While rushing attempts have ticked up slightly, the efficiency gap between passing and running plays has actually widened in favor of the aerial attack. Every 10th time a playcaller opts for a first-down run, they’re essentially gifting the opposition a point.
Myth #3: Lamar Jackson is a One-Dimensional Scrambler
Sure, the Ravens’ electric signal-caller leads all QBs in rushing yards. But dismissing him as a mere scrambler overlooks his elite pocket passing prowess. Jackson tops the NFL in DVOA and EPA per play from the pocket, shredding defenses with precision and poise. His highlight-reel scampers may garner the glory, but it’s his arm that’s propelling Baltimore’s offense to new heights.
Myth #4: Chop Robinson is a Draft Disappointment
The Dolphins’ first-round edge rusher may only have a pair of sacks to his name, but don’t be fooled by the box score. Thrust into a larger role following Jaelan Phillips’ season-ending injury, Robinson has flourished, posting elite pass rush win rates that portend a breakout in the season’s second half. The sacks will come, and the “bust” label will seem laughably premature in hindsight.
Myth #5: The Referees are in the Tank for the Chiefs
With the Chiefs’ unbeaten start littered with narrow escapes, conspiracy theorists have cried foul, accusing officials of swinging games in Kansas City’s favor. The reality? In close-and-late situations, no team has been flagged more frequently than the Chiefs. So unless the zebras are playing a diabolical game of 4D chess, claims of referee favoritism simply don’t hold water.
Myth #6: Jayden Daniels is a Lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year
The Commanders’ precocious passer has been stellar, but anointing him the OROY frontrunner overlooks a transcendent campaign from Raiders tight end Brock Bowers. Bowers is authoring a historically dominant rookie season, pacing all first-year TEs in yards per route run despite catching passes from a rotating cast of middling QBs. Daniels has been great, but Bowers has been legendary.
Myth #7: The 49ers’ Special Teams are Historically Inept
Missed kicks, blocked punts, and untimely penalties have plagued San Francisco’s third phase all season long. But as woeful as the Niners’ special teams have been, they pale in comparison to the Titans’ comical ineptitude. Tennessee’s special teams DVOA is more than double that of the Niners, with their punt coverage in particular reaching farcical levels of futility.
Myth #8: Tommy DeVito Can Save the Giants’ Season
The G-Men’s shocking decision to bench Daniel Jones in favor of charismatic backup Tommy DeVito had fans dreaming of a Nick Foles-esque miracle run. But a closer examination of DeVito’s 2023 numbers reveals a hideous stat line marred by a pitiful QBR, negative completion percentage over expectation, and a preposterously high sack rate. This underdog story seems destined for a sadder ending.
Myth #9: Justin Herbert is Carrying the Chargers
There’s no denying Herbert’s talent, but giving him sole credit for the Bolts’ resurgence does a disservice to the brilliant work of new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. The Chargers’ D has outperformed their offense by both DVOA and EPA, routinely shutting down opposing aerial attacks despite pedestrian pass rush metrics and a revolving door of injuries. Coach Minter is the straw that stirs the drink in Los Angeles.
Myth #10: Disguised Safety Coverages are Kryptonite for NFL Offenses
Pre-snap safety rotation has skyrocketed across the league, with no team employing the tactic more frequently than the Vikings. But is this shell game actually paying dividends for defenses? The data says no. Leaguewide EPA per dropback is actually higher against rotated safety looks than their static counterparts. The Vikings are a notable outlier, but the overall trend suggests this schematic wrinkle may be more sizzle than steak.
So there you have it: ten myths from the 2024 NFL season emphatically busted, with the underlying truths laid bare for all to see. As the stretch run beckons, it’s time to cast aside these misconceptions and appreciate the strange, stirring realities of this endlessly fascinating league. The road to Super Bowl LVIII is paved with shattered assumptions – let’s enjoy the ride.
