As the MLB offseason kicks into high gear, the hot stove is simmering with speculation about where this winter’s biggest stars will land – and for how much. In an exclusive survey, ESPN asked a panel of MLB executives and insiders to predict the outcomes of some of the most pressing questions facing teams and players alike.
Will Soto’s Historic Deal Top $600 Million?
The survey’s headliner revolved around the future of slugger Juan Soto, who many expect to sign a record-breaking contract this offseason. A majority of respondents – 11 out of 18 – believe Soto will indeed surpass the $600 million mark, with the Yankees as the clear favorite to secure his services.
Do you think George Steinbrenner would allow one of the best players in the world to leave? The Yankees don’t let stars walk.
– MLB executive from a smaller-market team
Several execs pointed to Soto’s seamless fit in the Yankees’ lineup as a left-handed power bat, a role they’ve long coveted. The Mets also received votes, with one insider suggesting owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets could be the deciding factor.
Predicting Landing Spots for Top Free Agent Aces
The survey also asked participants to forecast where the “big three” free agent pitchers with MLB experience – Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried – will sign. The results:
- Burnes: Mets (7 votes), Red Sox (2), Orioles (2), Dodgers (2), Others (3)
- Snell: Giants (7), Phillies (4), Blue Jays (2), Others (3)
- Fried: Mets (4), Dodgers (2), Giants (2), Cubs (2), Braves (2), Others (5)
The Mets emerged as a potential landing spot for all three, as they face the possibility of losing multiple rotation stalwarts. The Giants were tabbed as heavy favorites to retain Snell, with one exec noting that “it clicked for him on the West Coast.”
Alonso, Bregman Face Uncertain Futures
Shifting to position players, the panel was split on whether slugging first baseman Pete Alonso will remain with the Mets. Those predicting he’ll stay cited his attachment to the city and team, while others envisioned him moving within the NL East to the Nationals.
Third baseman Alex Bregman, meanwhile, was pegged by a majority of respondents to leave the Astros. Potential suitors named included the Phillies and Giants, with one exec suggesting Bregman could transition to second base in San Francisco.
Eyebrow-Raising Contracts and Trade Candidates
As for the contract that will raise the most eyebrows, several names surfaced, from Nick Martinez to Jurickson Profar to even Juan Soto himself. “The amount of money that is not deferred is going to be shocking,” one voter remarked of Soto’s potential deal.
On the trade front, Garrett Crochet of the White Sox was seen as the crown jewel should Chicago move him. The Mets, Braves, and Orioles were frequently mentioned as possible destinations.
Other notable trade candidates singled out included NL Central closers Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley, as well as Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado. One exec even floated the possibility of the Phillies moving catcher J.T. Realmuto ahead of his walk year.
Small-Market Clubs to Watch
As for which smaller-market teams could make noise, the Royals, Reds, Cardinals, and Tigers each received multiple votes. Kansas City was praised for retaining starter Michael Wacha, while one exec believes the Reds are “not that far off” from contention under new manager Terry Francona.
With the Winter Meetings on the horizon, one thing is certain – the MLB hot stove is just starting to heat up. Where the chips fall is anyone’s guess, but if this survey is any indication, the baseball world is in for a wild ride this offseason.
