Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader who has ruled Belarus with an iron grip since 1994, has secured a seventh term as president in an election widely denounced as a sham by the opposition and Western governments. According to preliminary results announced by Belarus’ central election commission, the 68-year-old strongman received nearly 87% of the vote, while the runner-up garnered a mere 3%.
Lukashenko’s Challengers Praised Him Throughout Campaign
In a move seen as lending a veneer of legitimacy to the stage-managed vote, Lukashenko faced four challengers who were all loyal to him and praised the incumbent throughout the campaign. The carefully choreographed electoral process left no doubt that Lukashenko, known as “Europe’s last dictator,” would extend his ruthless three-decade grip on the country of 9 million people.
German Foreign Minister: “Bitter Day” for Freedom and Democracy
The international community wasted no time in condemning the election result. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called the vote a “bitter day for all those who long for freedom and democracy,” while her Polish counterpart Radosław Sikorski expressed mock surprise that “only” 87.6% backed Lukashenko, sarcastically asking if the rest would “fit inside the prisons.”
You’re just putting your people at risk.
Alexander Lukashenko addressing opposition in exile
Exiled Opposition Leader Denounces “Farce”
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the exiled opposition leader whose husband Sergei Tikhanovsky has been held incommunicado for almost a year, denounced the election as a “farce.” She urged voters to cross off everyone on the ballot in protest and called on world leaders not to recognize the result.
Putin Congratulates Lukashenko on “Confident Victory”
One leader quick to congratulate Lukashenko was his closest ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who praised him for achieving a “confident victory.” The contested 2020 election, marred by allegations of fraud and unprecedented protests, pushed Lukashenko closer to Moscow, effectively transforming Minsk into a vassal state that proved crucial for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Over 500,000 Belarusians Have Fled Since 2020
The violent crackdown by Lukashenko’s security forces following the 2020 election turned him into a pariah in the West. Human rights groups estimate more than 500,000 Belarusians, out of a population of 9 million, have left the country since then, mostly to Poland and Lithuania.
Anti-Lukashenko demonstrations took place across Europe on election day, with protesters carrying the white-red-white traditional Belarusian flag abolished by Lukashenko in 1995. However, they were unable to cast ballots as Belarus has scrapped voting from abroad.
Lukashenko Threatens to Punish Protesters’ Relatives
During a rambling four-hour press conference after voting, Lukashenko threatened to punish relatives in Belarus of those participating in protests abroad. “You’re just putting your people at risk,” he menacingly told the opposition in exile. “And as for you, we will deal with you.”
Analysts: Lukashenko Maneuvering Ahead of Potential Geopolitical Shifts
While observers believe Lukashenko has been making careful overtures towards the West in recent months, including pardoning 250 political prisoners, analysts see it as an effort to position himself ahead of potential geopolitical shifts. With anticipation of ceasefire talks over Ukraine and Donald Trump back in the White House, Lukashenko may be seeking to ease Belarus’ international isolation.
Lukashenko wouldn’t want his regime to be left out if some sort of detente starts in the region.
Artyom Shraibman, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
As the Ukraine war drags on and shapes the geopolitical landscape, Lukashenko is likely to continue his delicate balancing act between Moscow and the West. But for now, the election result cements his position as the longest-serving leader in Europe, with no signs of relinquishing power anytime soon. In a telling statement, he even predicted “there will be some kind of resolution this year” to the Ukraine conflict and refused to rule out running again in 2030.
For Belarus’ beleaguered opposition and those yearning for democratic change, Lukashenko’s stage-managed reelection is a bitter pill to swallow. As Tsikhanouskaya put it, the vote was a “farce” that bore no resemblance to a genuine election. But with Lukashenko’s iron-fisted control over the country showing no signs of weakening, their dreams of a free and fair Belarus remain as distant as ever.
