The road ahead appears rocky for newly minted Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch, as a recent Opinium poll for the Observer newspaper reveals her personal approval ratings trailing those of Labour leader Keir Starmer, as well as several of her Tory predecessors. The survey, conducted from November 11-13, 2022, paints a picture of an electorate divided on Badenoch’s leadership potential.
Badenoch’s Approval Lags Behind Past Tory Leaders
According to the poll, Badenoch’s net approval rating – the difference between those who approve and disapprove of her job performance – currently sits at a lackluster -5%. This places her behind the initial approval scores of former Conservative leaders Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson when they first took the helm.
In fact, the only recent Tory leader Badenoch surpasses in terms of starting popularity is Liz Truss, whose brief and tumultuous tenure began with a -9% approval rating after clinching the leadership last year. Truss would go on to become the shortest-serving prime minister in UK history.
Voters Divided on Badenoch
Drilling down into the numbers reveals a polarized electorate when it comes to their views on the new Conservative leader. While 20% of voters say they approve of the job Badenoch is doing, a larger 25% express disapproval. A sizable 46% of those who backed the Tories in the last general election approve of Badenoch’s performance thus far, but even among this group, more than a third (36%) feel neutral about her leadership.
Starmer Leads as Preferred PM
When asked who would make the best prime minister, respondents give Starmer a 12 percentage point edge over Badenoch. This margin has widened from seven points just two weeks ago when Sunak was still leading the Conservatives. Starmer’s own net approval rating remains underwater at -24 points, but has held steady since the last Opinium survey.
Badenoch Seen as Principled and Brave
The poll does indicate that Badenoch’s reputation as a conviction politician has permeated the public consciousness early in her tenure. Voters perceive her as someone willing to stick to her principles, as well as being brave and decisive – qualities that endeared her to many Tory MPs during the leadership contest, but also raised concerns among others.
On the question of bravery, Badenoch holds a significant advantage over her Labour counterpart, notching a net score of +8 compared to Starmer’s -19%. Still, it remains to be seen whether these traits will translate into improved job approval and electoral success for Badenoch and the Conservatives.
Trump Victory Polarizes Brits
The Opinium poll also gauged British sentiments surrounding Donald Trump’s return to the White House, finding a polarized electorate. Three in ten respondents view Trump’s election as a positive development for the US, while 44% believe it bodes poorly for the country. A majority (56%) still considers America an ally, but 43% think the UK should be willing to break with Washington on key issues.
Trump’s re-election is also seen as a negative for Ukraine, with nearly half of UK adults holding this view. Just over a third believe Britain’s current level of defense spending is too low in light of recent global events.
“Day-to-day British politics has been overshadowed by the re-election of Donald Trump, which Brits see as good news for rivals like Russia and bad news for Ukraine,” said James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs research at Opinium. “However, there’s no sign yet that the public will be pressuring the Labour government to increase defence spending, with two in five opposed to any further tax rises to fund it.”
As Badenoch seeks to stamp her authority on a Conservative Party still reeling from recent scandals and economic headwinds, these early approval figures suggest she has her work cut out for her in winning over a skeptical electorate. With a general election on the horizon, the new Tory leader will be hoping to quickly turn the tide of public opinion in her favor.
The poll does indicate that Badenoch’s reputation as a conviction politician has permeated the public consciousness early in her tenure. Voters perceive her as someone willing to stick to her principles, as well as being brave and decisive – qualities that endeared her to many Tory MPs during the leadership contest, but also raised concerns among others.
On the question of bravery, Badenoch holds a significant advantage over her Labour counterpart, notching a net score of +8 compared to Starmer’s -19%. Still, it remains to be seen whether these traits will translate into improved job approval and electoral success for Badenoch and the Conservatives.
Trump Victory Polarizes Brits
The Opinium poll also gauged British sentiments surrounding Donald Trump’s return to the White House, finding a polarized electorate. Three in ten respondents view Trump’s election as a positive development for the US, while 44% believe it bodes poorly for the country. A majority (56%) still considers America an ally, but 43% think the UK should be willing to break with Washington on key issues.
Trump’s re-election is also seen as a negative for Ukraine, with nearly half of UK adults holding this view. Just over a third believe Britain’s current level of defense spending is too low in light of recent global events.
“Day-to-day British politics has been overshadowed by the re-election of Donald Trump, which Brits see as good news for rivals like Russia and bad news for Ukraine,” said James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs research at Opinium. “However, there’s no sign yet that the public will be pressuring the Labour government to increase defence spending, with two in five opposed to any further tax rises to fund it.”
As Badenoch seeks to stamp her authority on a Conservative Party still reeling from recent scandals and economic headwinds, these early approval figures suggest she has her work cut out for her in winning over a skeptical electorate. With a general election on the horizon, the new Tory leader will be hoping to quickly turn the tide of public opinion in her favor.
