In a development that could reshape the 2024 presidential race, a new internal poll conducted by the influential United Auto Workers (UAW) union has found that Kamala Harris holds a commanding 22-point lead over Donald Trump among the union’s members in several key battleground states. The poll, which engaged nearly 300,000 active and retired UAW members and their families, shows Harris with especially strong support in the pivotal swing state of Michigan, where she leads Trump by a stunning 20 points.
The survey’s findings could spell trouble for the Trump campaign, which has been heavily courting working-class and union voters in the hopes of replicating the former president’s narrow 2016 and 2020 victories in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. According to a source close to the UAW leadership, the union’s membership accounted for a staggering 84% of Biden’s margin of victory in Michigan in the 2020 election, underscoring just how critical these voters are in deciding the outcome of presidential contests.
Harris Making Inroads with Key Demographic
Perhaps most worrying for the Trump camp is the poll’s revelation that Harris holds a 14-point advantage over the former president among non-college-educated men, a demographic that has been a bedrock of Trump’s political base but where Harris has struggled to gain traction. If Harris is able to cut into Trump’s support among these voters and hold onto the gains she’s made with union members, it could provide her with a decisive edge in narrowly divided swing states.
UAW Throwing Weight Behind Harris
The UAW, keenly aware of its members’ potential to sway the election, is taking aggressive steps to mobilize union voters on Harris’ behalf. The union has launched an extensive door-knocking operation in battleground states and is leveraging the poll’s findings to persuade members to back the Democratic ticket. When contacted directly by the UAW about the election, members increased their support for Harris over Trump by a whopping 29 points, suggesting that the union’s outreach efforts are paying significant dividends.
“When members hear directly from other members about what’s at stake and which candidate will have their backs, we’re able to break through. By engaging our members and highlighting the issues that matter – their paychecks, their families, and their futures – the union makes a real difference.”
UAW President Shawn Fain
Fain, who has emerged as a top surrogate and validator for Harris among union members, will be crisscrossing battleground states in the coming weeks to gin up support for the Democratic nominee. He’s expected to be joined on the campaign trail by other high-profile Harris backers, including Senator Bernie Sanders and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, both of whom have strong followings among the progressive and labor-aligned voters that make up much of the UAW rank-and-file.
Trump Faces Headwinds with Union Voters
For Trump, who has made courting union voters central to his reelection strategy, the UAW poll serves as a warning sign that he may be losing ground with this crucial constituency. Though the former president has gone to great lengths to spotlight his appeal to blue-collar workers, including staging campaign events at union facilities, he appears to be struggling to translate that message into concrete support among labor voters.
One potential bright spot for Trump came earlier this fall, when the Teamsters union declined to endorse in the presidential race, citing the Republican’s deep reservoir of support within its membership. But with most other major unions, including the UAW, lining up firmly behind Harris, Trump’s path to winning back the union voters who helped carry him to the White House in 2016 and 2020 looks increasingly treacherous.
As the 2024 race enters its final weeks and both campaigns focus their efforts on the handful of battleground states that are likely to determine the winner, the UAW poll suggests that Kamala Harris has the inside track with the union voters who could very well decide the election’s outcome. It remains to be seen whether Trump can claw back the support he’s lost among these critical voters, or if Fain and other labor leaders can successfully harness union members’ clout to push Harris over the finish line. But one thing is clear: in a race that could hinge on the narrowest of margins, the candidate who wins the battle for union votes will likely be the one celebrating victory on election night.
