In the shattered streets of Bint Jbeil, a mere kilometer from the Israel-Lebanon border, Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah stood before a battered stadium to deliver a victory speech. But the stands that once roared for Hezbollah’s triumphs were empty, the city lay in ruins, and the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was dead. As thousands of displaced residents returned to devastation, Hezbollah sought to frame survival as success.
A Pyrrhic Victory?
The ceasefire that took effect on Wednesday brought an end to a brutal year of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, one that claimed nearly 4,000 Lebanese lives, displaced over a million, and dealt a staggering $8.5 billion blow to the nation’s economy. Hezbollah declared that weathering the Israeli onslaught and avoiding total surrender constituted a win against a formidable foe.
But many in Lebanon are questioning what exactly has been won, and at what cost. With Nasrallah’s death and much of Hezbollah’s purported military might reduced to rubble and empty threats, the group’s aura of invincibility has been shattered. Critics argue that if Hezbollah can no longer credibly claim to defend Lebanon from Israeli aggression, its raison d’etre has evaporated.
Hezbollah’s Miscalculations
When Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel in October 2023, ostensibly to force a ceasefire in Gaza, it set off a chain reaction that rapidly escalated beyond its control. Nasrallah’s threats of tit-for-tat retaliation and unveiling of new weaponry initially projected an image of strength, but Israel called his bluff, launching a withering campaign that exposed the hollowness behind the bluster.
Contrary to Nasrallah’s promises of an arsenal that would bring Tel Aviv to its knees, Hezbollah’s rockets failed to overwhelm Israel’s defenses. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes relentlessly pounded Lebanon’s cities and infrastructure, while shadowy intelligence operations sowed chaos behind the lines. By the time Nasrallah himself fell to an Israeli strike in September, Hezbollah was in disarray, its 100,000 fighters powerless as their country crumbled.
Framing Defeat as Defiance
For Hezbollah officials like Fadlallah and newly minted leader Naim Qassem, even hinting at defeat remains anathema. They have sought to recast Lebanon’s anguish as a badge of honor and frame Hezbollah’s battered survival as a testament to its resilience. In his latest speech, Qassem invoked the sectarian tensions of the past as a warning against challenges to Hezbollah’s status.
It might be hard for Europeans and Westerners to understand, but this is victory. As long as the resistance is here, the Israelis will not be able to enter, then we have won.
Mohammed, Bint Jbeil resident
Among Hezbollah’s stalwart base in the country’s south, this narrative still resonates. Supporters cling to the belief that the group’s continued existence alone thwarts an Israeli invasion. In Bint Jbeil, Hezbollah aid groups work to clear rubble as anthems blare in a display of resilience.
An Uncertain Future
But no amount of defiant posturing can disguise the scale of the toll Lebanon has paid for Hezbollah’s ill-fated confrontation. With the country’s economy in tatters, its infrastructure devastated, and its people reeling from a year of trauma, even stalwart allies are questioning the wisdom of the group’s actions. Amidst the ruins, the path forward for both Hezbollah and Lebanon remains uncertain.
As the people of Bint Jbeil and countless other shattered towns sift through the wreckage, it remains to be seen whether Hezbollah’s proclamations of victory will ring hollow against the harrowing reality on the ground. For a nation so weary of bloodshed, true triumph may only come with the hard-won advent of a lasting peace.
