In a surprising turn of events, heat pump sales across Europe plummeted by a staggering 23% in 2024, effectively wiping out the gains made during the height of the gas crisis. This sharp decline has left industry experts puzzled and raised concerns about the future of Europe’s clean energy transition.
The Rise and Fall of Heat Pumps
Just a year ago, heat pumps were hailed as the solution to Europe’s energy woes. As gas prices soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, consumers turned to these efficient electric heating devices in droves. Sales surged in 2022 and 2023, offering a glimmer of hope for weaning the continent off fossil fuels.
However, the latest industry data paints a very different picture. Heat pump sales fell by nearly a quarter in 2024, reverting to pre-war levels. The drop was particularly pronounced in key markets like Germany (-50%), Belgium (-50%), and France (-39%).
“The very strong growth that appeared in 2022 and 2023 – war-related and gas price-related – didn’t have a foundation in robust policy.”
Paul Kenny, European Heat Pump Association
Factors Behind the Slump
Several factors appear to have contributed to this dramatic reversal of fortunes for the heat pump industry:
- Policy Uncertainty: Inconsistent and shifting government support schemes left consumers hesitant to invest.
- Economic Slowdown: A sluggish economy led to an overall drop in heating system installations.
- Persistent Gas Crisis: Surprisingly, high gas prices and supply concerns failed to sustain heat pump demand.
The combination of these headwinds proved too much for the fledgling heat pump boom to overcome. As Paul Kenny of the EHPA put it: “One would think in Europe – with the enemy at the gates, and energy security and energy sovereignty so important in political minds – our policymakers would take the sort of actions that society needs.”
Implications for Clean Energy
The heat pump slump has far-reaching implications for Europe’s clean energy transition. These devices are seen as crucial for reducing reliance on gas heating and combating climate change. But without sustained growth, those goals may remain out of reach.
This slowdown also threatens green jobs and manufacturing capacity. The EHPA estimates at least 4,000 positions have already been cut, with thousands more workers facing reduced hours as newly built factories sit idle.
The UK Bucks the Trend
Amid the gloom, the UK stood out as the only major market to defy the downward trend. Heat pump sales there rose an impressive 63% year-on-year in 2024.
This growth was spurred by the UK government’s ambitious target to install 600,000 heat pumps annually by 2028. Generous grants of up to £5,000 helped make the upfront costs more palatable for households.
The UK’s success offers a model for other European countries to emulate. Consistent policy support and financial incentives can drive widespread heat pump adoption, even in the face of economic headwinds.
Charting a Path Forward
To get the heat pump transition back on track, experts say Europe needs a clear and coordinated policy approach. Governments must provide long-term certainty to consumers and industry through regulation, subsidies, and public investment.
The EU is set to put forward a “Clean Industrial Deal” next week that could provide a framework for this. By aligning climate goals with economic competitiveness and geopolitical concerns, policymakers have an opportunity to put heat pumps at the heart of the continent’s energy future.
“Without the heat pump, we don’t get away from Russian gas, or American gas, or anyone else’s gas.”
Paul Kenny, European Heat Pump Association
The alternative is continued dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets that wreak havoc on household budgets and the global climate. For Europe to meet its ambitious decarbonization targets, getting heat pumps back on a growth trajectory is not optional – it’s essential.
As policymakers grapple with this challenge, the heat pump industry stands ready to deliver the clean heating solutions Europe needs. But without robust and reliable support, the promise of a fossil-free future risks slipping away.
